Match report →
Switzerland – Canada2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Switzerland
1.80
Total xG
2.75
Canada
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Switzerland | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.55 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 26 vs 17, 9 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 17 vs 26, 9 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Switzerland with a probability of 56%
- Switzerland's starting lineup accounts for only 36% of the team's seasonal goal production
- Canada demonstrated a strong offensive performance in this tournament with 7 goals in 2 games, averaging 3.5 goals per game
Risks
- Canada will be without I. Koné (broken ankle)
- No historical head-to-head matches between these two teams are available in the dataset, limiting the basis for comparison
- BC Place Stadium has seen an average of 3.8 total goals per game in recent matches, indicating a potential for an open and higher-scoring encounter
All probabilities
Result
Switzerland56%
Draw26%
Canada18%
Double chance
Switzerland or draw82%
Canada or draw44%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Switzerland with Remo Freuler: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Switzerland: first goal in 5 of 5 games (100%)
- Switzerland: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Canada with Derek Cornelius: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Canada: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
Lineups
Switzerland 4-2-3-1 · Canada 4-4-2
Switzerland
- 1 G. Kobel
- 25 L. Jaquez
- 4 N. Elvedi
- 5 M. Akanji
- 13 R. Rodríguez Araya
- 8 R. Freuler
- 10 G. Xhaka
- 15 D. Sow
- 9 J. Manzambi
- 17 R. Vargas
- 7 B. Embolo
Canada
- 16 M. Crépeau
- 2 A. Johnston
- 4 L. De Fougerolles
- 13 D. Cornelius
- 22 R. Laryea
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 25 N. Saliba
- 6 M. Choiniere
- 20 A. Ahmed
- 10 J. David
- 9 C. Larin
Substitutes
- 22 F. Rieder
- 24 A. Amenda
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 21 M. Keller
- 3 S. Widmer
- 12 Y. Mvogo
- 18 E. Cömert
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 19 N. Okafor
- 23 M. Amdouni
- 11 D. Ndoye
- 14 A. Jasari
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 26 C. Itten
- 19 A. Davies
- 12 T. Oluwaseyi
- 15 M. Bombito
- 11 L. Millar
- 18 O. Goodman
- 24 P. Akinpelu
- 7 S. Antunes Eustáquio
- 23 N. Sigur
- 5 J. Waterman
- 26 J. Nelson
- 21 J. Osorio
- 1 D. St Clair
- 14 J. Shaffelburg
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