World Cup
Switzerland - Canada
06/24/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.7
0.9
1:1
12%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Switzerland
Canada
The Lab
- 1Switzerland with Remo Freuler: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Switzerland: first goal in 5 of 5 games (100%)
- 3Switzerland: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 4Canada with Derek Cornelius: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 5Canada: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
56%
Draw
26%
Away Win
18%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
82%
Away or Draw
44%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Switzerland with a probability of 56%
- Switzerland's starting lineup accounts for only 36% of the team's seasonal goal production
- Canada demonstrated a strong offensive performance in this tournament with 7 goals in 2 games, averaging 3.5 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Canada will be without I. Koné (broken ankle)
- No historical head-to-head matches between these two teams are available in the dataset, limiting the basis for comparison
- BC Place Stadium has seen an average of 3.8 total goals per game in recent matches, indicating a potential for an open and higher-scoring encounter
Overview
Switzerland (2nd place, 4 points) faces Canada (1st place, 4 points) at BC Place Stadium in a World Cup match on June 24, 2026, 9:00 PM
Both teams have collected 4 points in their first two group matches and are aiming for group victory
The mathematical analysis gives Switzerland the favorite role with a 56% probability of a home win
Form
Switzerland is in good form with a DWDDW (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) record in their last five matches
Switzerland won their last game 4-1
Canada also has a DWDDW record (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) from their last five fixtures
Canada won their last game clearly with a 6-0 score
Both teams are unbeaten in their last five matches, indicating stable performances
Statistics
Switzerland has scored an average of 2.33 goals per game this season and conceded only 0.33 goals
In home games, Switzerland's goal average is 2.2 scored and only 0.2 conceded
Canada scored an average of 3.5 goals and conceded 0.5 goals in two games
Switzerland recorded 4 clean sheets this season, while Canada had one clean sheet
At BC Place Stadium, the last 5 matches averaged 3.8 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 40% of these games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%
Head-to-Head
No historical head-to-head matches between Switzerland and Canada are available in the provided dataset
Key Players
For Switzerland, Johan Manzambi (2 goals, 0 assists), Breel Embolo (1 goal, 1 assist), and Rubén Vargas (1 goal, 1 assist) are the top scorers this season and are in the starting lineup
Granit Xhaka also started and recorded 1 goal
For Canada, Jonathan David (3 goals, 0 assists), Cyle Larin (2 goals, 0 assists), and Nathan-Dylan Saliba (1 goal, 1 assist) are starting
These players are responsible for a large part of Canada's offense
Goalkeepers
Gregor Kobel, Switzerland's goalkeeper, has achieved 4 clean sheets this season
Maxime Crépeau, Canada's goalkeeper, recorded 1 clean sheet this season
Influences
The match will take place at BC Place Stadium on artificial turf
Switzerland has a record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses (4:1 goals) on artificial turf
Canada has a record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses (6:0 goals) on artificial turf
The stadium averages 3.8 goals per game, with a 40% chance of both teams scoring