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Scotland – Brazil0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Scotland
0.77
Total xG
2.40
Brazil
1.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Scotland | Brazil |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.62 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 43 vs 6, 37 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 43, 37 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Brazil's offensive threat is critically limited, with only 17% of typical goal production available.
- The mathematical analysis predicts a Brazil win with a 57% probability.
- Brazil's strong recent form, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches, contrasts with Scotland's mixed performance.
Risks
- Brazil's away defense is a concern, as they concede an average of 3.0 goals per away game.
- The probability for over 2.5 goals is only 43% according to the mathematical model, suggesting a potentially lower-scoring match.
All probabilities
Result
Scotland16%
Draw27%
Brazil57%
Double chance
Scotland or draw43%
Brazil or draw84%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
0:1
13%
1:1
13%
0:2
12%
0:0
11%
1:2
9%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Scotland with Ben Gannon-Doak: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Brazil: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Brazil: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)
- Brazil with Danilo: 2.7 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Scotland 4-2-3-1 · Brazil 4-3-3
Scotland
- 1 A. Gunn
- 22 N. Patterson
- 13 J. Hendry
- 26 S. McKenna
- 3 A. Robertson
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 23 K. McLean
- 17 B. Doak
- 4 S. McTominay
- 7 J. McGinn
- 20 L. Shankland
Brazil
- 1 A. Becker
- 13 D. da Silva
- 4 M. Aoás Corrêa
- 3 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 16 D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
- 8 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 20 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
- 26 R. Rocha
- 9 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
- 7 V. Júnior
Substitutes
- 2 A. Hickey
- 11 R. Christie
- 9 L. Dykes
- 18 G. Hirst
- 16 D. Hyam
- 14 R. Stewart
- 25 F. Curtis
- 12 L. Kelly
- 15 J. Souttar
- 24 A. Ralston
- 6 K. Tierney
- 5 G. Hanley
- 8 T. Fletcher
- 10 C. Adams
- 21 Craig Gordon
- 19 E. Moreira de Sousa
- 25 Thiago
- 22 G. Martinelli Silva
- 2 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
- 14 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 23 E. Santana de Moraes
- 17 F. Tavares
- 24 R. Ibañez da Silva
- 6 A. Lobo Silva
- 21 L. Rosa da Silva
- 12 W. Pereira da Silva
- 18 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 15 L. Pereira
- 10 Neymar
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