World Cup
Scotland - Brazil
06/24/2026, 10:00 PM
Expected Goals
0.8
2.4
1.6
0:1
13%1:1
13%0:2
12%0:0
11%1:2
9%What influences the xG?
Scotland
Brazil
The Lab
- 1Scotland with Ben Gannon-Doak: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Brazil: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Brazil: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)
- 4Brazil with Danilo: 2.7 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
16%
Draw
27%
Away Win
57%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
43%
Away or Draw
84%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Brazil's offensive threat is critically limited, with only 17% of typical goal production available.
- The mathematical analysis predicts a Brazil win with a 57% probability.
- Brazil's strong recent form, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches, contrasts with Scotland's mixed performance.
Risk Factors
- Brazil's away defense is a concern, as they concede an average of 3.0 goals per away game.
- The probability for over 2.5 goals is only 43% according to the mathematical model, suggesting a potentially lower-scoring match.
Overview
Scotland (3rd place, 3 points) face Brazil (1st place, 4 points) at Hard Rock Stadium in a World Cup fixture. The match is on June 25, 2026, 12:00 AM. Brazil seeks to solidify its top position in the group.
Form
Scotland's recent form is LWWWL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). Their last five matches include a 0-1 loss against Morocco and a 1-0 win over Haiti.
Brazil shows strong form with WWWDW (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). Their recent results feature a 3-0 victory against Haiti and a 1-1 draw with Morocco.
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Scotland averages 2.17 goals scored per game and concedes 1.17 goals per game this season. They have kept 2 clean sheets. In home games, Scotland averages 2.25 goals scored and 1 goal conceded.
Brazil averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded per game this season. They achieved 6 clean sheets. In away games, Brazil averages 1.5 goals scored but concedes 3.0 goals.
The venue, Hard Rock Stadium, has seen an average of 3.0 total goals per game in its 2 matches, with both teams scoring in 2 of 2 games (100% BTTS rate). Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 2 games (50% Over 2.5 rate).
Head-to-Head
The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between Scotland and Brazil.
Key Players
For Scotland, Lawrence Shankland has shown strong recent form, with 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 4 games, averaging a rating of 7.69 (form rising). Scott McTominay contributed 2 goals in his last 5 games with an average rating of 7.32 (form rising). John McGinn recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games, with an average rating of 6.95.
For Brazil, Vinicius Junior is a key attacker, scoring 3 goals and providing 2 assists in his last 4 games, with an average rating of 7.46. Midfielder Lucas PaquetĂĄ registered 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 games, averaging 7.33. Matheus Cunha scored 2 goals in his last 4 games, with an average rating of 7.03.
Goalkeepers
Scotland's goalkeeper Angus Gunn has a season average rating of 6.79 and has recorded 2 clean sheets this season.
Brazil's goalkeeper Alisson has a season average rating of 6.93 and has achieved 6 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Scotland exhibits a home scoring average of 2.25 goals, while conceding 1.0 goal at home. Brazil's away form shows an average of 1.5 goals scored and 3.0 goals conceded.
The venue's playing surface is grass.
Hard Rock Stadium indicates an average of 3.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in all 2 previous matches, and Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 2 matches.