Match report →
New Zealand – Belgium1 : 5
Why the model thinks so
New Zealand
2.06
Total xG
4.11
Belgium
2.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New Zealand | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (5.4 goals/match) | +2.87 | +2.87 |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.52 | |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.48 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 83 vs 8, 75 places gap) | −0.39 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 83, 75 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very balanced match, with a 39% home win probability for New Zealand and 39% for Belgium
- Belgium faces a critical challenge, as according to the analysis, only 0% of their usual goal production is available
- Both teams show a negative form trend according to Advanced Stats, although Belgium's traditional form (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) in the last five games was better than New Zealand's (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
Risks
- The lack of head-to-head data makes it difficult to make a well-founded assessment of the historical matchup
- Performance on artificial turf could be a risk factor for both teams, as New Zealand has a record of 0W-1D-1L (3:5 goals) and Belgium a record of 1W-3D-0L (7:4 goals) on this surface
- Belgium must do without defenders N. Ngoy (Red Card) and Z. Debast (Leg Injury)
All probabilities
Result
New Zealand39%
Draw22%
Belgium39%
Double chance
New Zealand or draw61%
Belgium or draw61%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.578%
Under 2.522%
Over 3.559%
Under 3.541%
Both teams score
Yes77%
No23%
Most likely scores
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:3
5%
3:2
5%
1:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Belgium with Kevin De Bruyne : 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- New Zealand with Francis de Vries: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
Lineups
New Zealand 4-2-3-1 · Belgium 4-2-3-1
New Zealand
- 1 M. Crocombe
- 2 T. Payne
- 16 F. Surman
- 4 T. Bindon
- 13 L. Cacace
- 6 J. Bell
- 8 M. Stamenic
- 10 S. Singh
- 23 R. Thomas
- 11 E. Just
- 9 C. Wood
Belgium
- 1 T. Courtois
- 21 T. Castagne
- 4 B. Mechele
- 3 A. Theate
- 5 M. De Cuyper
- 8 Y. Tielemans
- 20 H. Vanaken
- 11 J. Doku
- 7 K. De Bruyne
- 10 L. Trossard
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
Substitutes
- 18 B. Waine
- 26 T. Smith
- 20 C. McCowatt
- 5 M. Boxall
- 19 B. Old
- 21 J. Randall
- 17 K. Barbarouses
- 3 F. De Vries
- 12 A. Paulsen
- 7 L. Rogerson
- 15 N. Pijnaker
- 24 C. Elliot
- 14 A. Rufer
- 25 L. Bayliss
- 22 M. Woud
- 6 A. Witsel
- 26 M. Fernandez Pardo
- 15 T. Meunier
- 19 D. da Silva Moreira
- 13 M. Penders
- 12 S. Lammens
- 24 A. Mvom Onana
- 14 D. Lukebakio
- 18 J. Seys
- 9 R. Lukaku Menama
- 23 N. Raskin
- 22 A. Saelemaekers
- 16 K. De Winter
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