World Cup
New Zealand - Belgium
06/27/2026, 03:00 AM
Expected Goals
2.1
4.1
2.1
2:2
7%1:2
7%2:1
7%2:3
5%3:2
5%What influences the xG?
New Zealand
Belgium
League
The Lab
- 1Belgium with Kevin De Bruyne : 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2New Zealand with Francis de Vries: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
22%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
93%
Under 1.5
7%
Over 2.5
78%
Under 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
59%
Under 3.5
41%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
77%
No
23%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very balanced match, with a 39% home win probability for New Zealand and 39% for Belgium
- Belgium faces a critical challenge, as according to the analysis, only 0% of their usual goal production is available
- Both teams show a negative form trend according to Advanced Stats, although Belgium's traditional form (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) in the last five games was better than New Zealand's (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
Risk Factors
- The lack of head-to-head data makes it difficult to make a well-founded assessment of the historical matchup
- Performance on artificial turf could be a risk factor for both teams, as New Zealand has a record of 0W-1D-1L (3:5 goals) and Belgium a record of 1W-3D-0L (7:4 goals) on this surface
- Belgium must do without defenders N. Ngoy (Red Card) and Z. Debast (Leg Injury)
Overview
New Zealand hosts Belgium at BC Place Stadium for a World Cup match on June 27, 2026, 4:00 AM
New Zealand is in 4th place in the group with 1 point
Belgium holds 3rd place with 2 points
Form
New Zealand's form in the last five games is WLLDL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
The last match for New Zealand ended in a loss
Belgium is undefeated in their last five games with a form of DWWDD (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses)
Belgium's last two games ended in a draw
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
New Zealand scored an average of 5.8 goals per game this season and conceded 0.2 goals per game
They kept 4 clean sheets and 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Belgium averages 3.63 goals per game and 0.88 goals conceded per game this season
They kept a clean sheet in 4 matches and 5 games also ended with over 2.5 goals
BC Place Stadium has seen an average of 3.8 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and 4 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
No previous head-to-head matches are recorded between New Zealand and Belgium
Key Players
For New Zealand, Elijah Just is a key offensive player with 2 goals and a season average rating of 7.4
Finn Surman contributed 1 goal and has a season average rating of 7.44
Chris Wood provided 2 assists this season
For Belgium, Youri Tielemans is active with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Leandro Trossard also recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 matches
Kevin De Bruyne showed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Max Crocombe of New Zealand kept 4 clean sheets this season
Thibaut Courtois of Belgium also recorded 4 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match takes place on artificial turf
New Zealand's record on artificial turf is 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss with 3:5 goals
Belgium achieved 1 win, 3 draws, and 0 losses on artificial turf with 7:4 goals
BC Place Stadium is known for an average of 3.8 goals per game and a high Over 2.5 rate of 80%