World Cup

New Zealand - Belgium

06/27/2026, 03:00 AM

1 : 5
Expected Goals
New Zealand
2.1
Total xG
4.1
Belgium
2.1
Most Likely Scores

2:2

7%

1:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:3

5%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
NZBEL

New Zealand

Standings disadvantage (pos 83 vs 8, 75 places gap)
-0.39
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.04

Belgium

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.52
Attack strength (1.28x league average)
+0.48
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 83, 75 places gap)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.00
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (5.4 goals/match)
+2.87
+2.87
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Belgium with Kevin De Bruyne : 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    New Zealand with Francis de Vries: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

22%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

93%

Under 1.5

7%

Over 2.5

78%

Under 2.5

22%

Over 3.5

59%

Under 3.5

41%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

77%

No

23%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a very balanced match, with a 39% home win probability for New Zealand and 39% for Belgium
  • Belgium faces a critical challenge, as according to the analysis, only 0% of their usual goal production is available
  • Both teams show a negative form trend according to Advanced Stats, although Belgium's traditional form (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) in the last five games was better than New Zealand's (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
Risk Factors
  • The lack of head-to-head data makes it difficult to make a well-founded assessment of the historical matchup
  • Performance on artificial turf could be a risk factor for both teams, as New Zealand has a record of 0W-1D-1L (3:5 goals) and Belgium a record of 1W-3D-0L (7:4 goals) on this surface
  • Belgium must do without defenders N. Ngoy (Red Card) and Z. Debast (Leg Injury)
Overview

New Zealand hosts Belgium at BC Place Stadium for a World Cup match on June 27, 2026, 4:00 AM

New Zealand is in 4th place in the group with 1 point

Belgium holds 3rd place with 2 points

Form

New Zealand's form in the last five games is WLLDL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

The last match for New Zealand ended in a loss

Belgium is undefeated in their last five games with a form of DWWDD (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses)

Belgium's last two games ended in a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

New Zealand scored an average of 5.8 goals per game this season and conceded 0.2 goals per game

They kept 4 clean sheets and 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Belgium averages 3.63 goals per game and 0.88 goals conceded per game this season

They kept a clean sheet in 4 matches and 5 games also ended with over 2.5 goals

BC Place Stadium has seen an average of 3.8 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and 4 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

No previous head-to-head matches are recorded between New Zealand and Belgium

Key Players

For New Zealand, Elijah Just is a key offensive player with 2 goals and a season average rating of 7.4

Finn Surman contributed 1 goal and has a season average rating of 7.44

Chris Wood provided 2 assists this season

For Belgium, Youri Tielemans is active with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Leandro Trossard also recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 matches

Kevin De Bruyne showed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Max Crocombe of New Zealand kept 4 clean sheets this season

Thibaut Courtois of Belgium also recorded 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place on artificial turf

New Zealand's record on artificial turf is 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss with 3:5 goals

Belgium achieved 1 win, 3 draws, and 0 losses on artificial turf with 7:4 goals

BC Place Stadium is known for an average of 3.8 goals per game and a high Over 2.5 rate of 80%

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