World Cup

Colombia - Portugal

06/27/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Colombia
1.4
Total xG
2.9
Portugal
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
COLPOR

Colombia

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-1.05
Attack strength (1.26x league average)
-0.56
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap)
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.07
Daniel Muñoz on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
61% of goal output missing (only 65% available)

Portugal

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.53
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.12
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap)
+0.05
Attack strength (1.43x league average)
-0.02

League

High-scoring league (3.4 goals/match)
+0.85
+0.85
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Colombia: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Portugal with Pedro Neto: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Portugal: first goal in 5 of 5 games (100%)

  • 4
    Colombia: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Colombia: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 16)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

28%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Portugal's offensive strength: Portugal averages 3.33 goals per game, including 4.0 goals in away matches
  • Balanced prediction: Mathematical analysis shows equal win probabilities of 36% for both teams and 1.44 expected goals
  • Colombia's home defensive strength: Colombia concedes only 0.7 goals per home game on average
Risk Factors
  • Limited starting lineup strength for Colombia: Only 65% of usual goal threat is available, Daniel Muñoz (2G/0A) is not in the lineup
  • Short recovery period for Colombia: The team had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Portugal's away defensive weakness: Portugal concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
Overview

Colombia (1st place, 6 points) faces Portugal (2nd place, 4 points) at Hard Rock Stadium

This World Cup match takes place on June 28, 2026, 12:30 AM

Both teams are in a strong position in the group stage

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Colombia shows strong form with LWWWW in their last five matches

The team recorded four wins and one loss

Currently, Colombia has achieved four consecutive wins

Portugal is also in excellent form with WWWDW in their last five outings

This equates to four wins and one draw without a single loss

Portugal secured a win in their last match

Statistics

Colombia averages 1.56 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.0 goals

In home games, Colombia is defensively solid with 1.6 goals scored per match and only 0.7 goals conceded

The team kept 7 clean sheets

Portugal is very strong offensively with an average of 3.33 goals scored per game

Their defense concedes an average of 1.17 goals

Away from home, Portugal scores an impressive 4.0 goals per game, but also concedes 2.0 goals

The Hard Rock Stadium sees an average of 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 3 matches, and 2 out of 3 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Key Players

For Colombia, Luis DĂ­az (1 goal, 1 assist this season, 2 goals, 3 assists in last 5 games with a rating of 7.54) and Jhon Arias (2 goals in last 5 games with a rating of 7.40) are important attacking forces

James RodrĂ­guez contributed 2 assists in the last 5 games and achieved a rating of 7.47

For Portugal, Cristiano Ronaldo stands out (2 goals this season, 4 goals in last 5 games with a rating of 6.97)

Bruno Fernandes scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists in the last 5 matches and has a rating of 7.82

Pedro Neto was involved in 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games with a rating of 6.84

Goalkeepers

Camilo Vargas is the goalkeeper for Colombia and has an average rating of 6.4 this season

The team kept 7 clean sheets this season

Diogo Costa is the goalkeeper for Portugal and has an average rating of 7.6 this season

Portugal kept 2 clean sheets

Influences

The Hard Rock Stadium shows a tendency for high-scoring games with an average of 3.0 goals per match

In 2 out of 3 games, both teams scored, and in 2 out of 3 games, more than 2.5 goals were scored

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