World Cup

Tunisia - Netherlands

06/25/2026, 11:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Tunisia
1.8
Total xG
3.5
Netherlands
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

1:3

5%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
TUNNET

Tunisia

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 3.6 league avg)
-2.47
Standings disadvantage (pos 46 vs 7, 39 places gap)
-0.33
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.32
100% of goal output missing (only 71% available)

Netherlands

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.76
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 46, 39 places gap)
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.08
Attack strength (1.23x league average)
-0.01
Crysencio Summerville on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (5.1 goals/match)
+2.64
+2.64
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tunisia with Hannibal: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Netherlands with Denzel Dumfries: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Netherlands: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 4
    Netherlands: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Tunisia: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

24%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

70%

No

30%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The model forecasts a balanced match with 38% win probability and 1.77 expected goals for both teams
  • Form Disparity: Netherlands is in better form with 2 wins in 5 games, while Tunisia recorded 4 losses in 5 games
  • Netherlands' Offensive Strength: Netherlands has already scored 7 goals in the World Cup, while Tunisia could only register 1 goal
Risk Factors
  • Tunisia's tournament defense: Tunisia conceded 9 goals in 2 World Cup matches
  • Limited offensive threat for Tunisia: Tunisia averaged only 1.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Critical squad strength for Tunisia: Only 71% of the usual starting XI strength is available
Overview

Tunisia (4th place, 0 points) faces Netherlands (1st place, 4 points) at Arrowhead Stadium. This World Cup match takes place on June 26, 2026, 1:00 AM. Tunisia aims to overcome their weak tournament performance, while the Netherlands seek to solidify their strong position.

Form

Tunisia showed poor form in their last five matches with 'DLLLL' (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses. Their last encounter ended in a loss.

Netherlands presented themselves in better condition with 'DLWDW'. They achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five fixtures. Netherlands won their last game.

Statistics

Tunisia has scored 1 goal and conceded 9 goals in this World Cup. Their season average goal production is 2.2 goals per game.

Netherlands has scored 7 goals and conceded 3 goals in the tournament so far. Their season average is 3.38 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded per game, keeping 5 clean sheets.

The venue, Arrowhead Stadium, recorded an average of 1.5 goals per game in 2 matches. Both teams scored in 0 of 2 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 2 games.

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between Tunisia and Netherlands.

Key Players

For Tunisia, Hannibal is an important midfielder with a season rating of 6.97 and one assist in 4 of the last 5 games. Anis Slimane (season rating 6.55) also registered one assist in his last 5 appearances. Montassar Talbi (season rating 6.62) is a key defender and played in all 5 of the last matches.

For the Netherlands, Cody Gakpo stands out, contributing 2 goals and 1 assist this season, and 4 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Brian Brobbey scored 2 goals this season and also 2 goals in the last 5 games. Ryan Gravenberch (season rating 7.16) provided 2 assists this season, which he also confirmed in the last 5 games. Crysencio Summerville (2G/1A) is not named in the starting lineup.

Goalkeepers

Tunisia's goalkeeper, Aymen Dahmen, played 1 game this season with an average rating of 5.73. Tunisia kept 10 clean sheets this season.

Bart Verbruggen is the goalkeeper for Netherlands. He played 2 season games with an average rating of 6.94. Netherlands recorded 5 clean sheets this season.

Influences

The home team, Tunisia, has averaged 2.17 goals in home games this season and conceded no home goals. The away team, Netherlands, averaged 3.33 goals per away game and conceded 1 goal per away game.

Arrowhead Stadium has seen an average of 1.5 goals per game. Both teams scored in 0% of matches, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 50% of matches.

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