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Tunisia – Netherlands1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Tunisia
1.77
Total xG
3.55
Netherlands
1.77
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tunisia | Netherlands |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (5.1 goals/match) | +2.64 | +2.64 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 3.6 league avg) | −2.47 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.76 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 46 vs 7, 39 places gap) | −0.33 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 46, 39 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | −0.01 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 71% available) | ||
| Crysencio Summerville on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The model forecasts a balanced match with 38% win probability and 1.77 expected goals for both teams
- Form Disparity: Netherlands is in better form with 2 wins in 5 games, while Tunisia recorded 4 losses in 5 games
- Netherlands' Offensive Strength: Netherlands has already scored 7 goals in the World Cup, while Tunisia could only register 1 goal
Risks
- Tunisia's tournament defense: Tunisia conceded 9 goals in 2 World Cup matches
- Limited offensive threat for Tunisia: Tunisia averaged only 1.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Critical squad strength for Tunisia: Only 71% of the usual starting XI strength is available
All probabilities
Result
Tunisia38%
Draw24%
Netherlands38%
Double chance
Tunisia or draw62%
Netherlands or draw62%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
1:3
5%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tunisia with Hannibal: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Netherlands with Denzel Dumfries: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Netherlands: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- Netherlands: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Tunisia: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Tunisia 5-4-1 · Netherlands 4-3-3
Tunisia
- 16 A. Dahmen
- 20 Y. Valery
- 3 M. Talbi
- 17 E. Skhiri
- 21 A. Ben Hmida
- 2 A. Abdi
- 25 A. Slimane
- 11 I. Gharbi
- 13 R. Khedira
- 10 H. Mejbri
- 9 H. Mastouri
Netherlands
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 22 D. Dumfries
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 5 N. Aké
- 8 R. Gravenberch
- 21 F. de Jong
- 14 T. Reijnders
- 18 D. Malen
- 19 B. Brobbey
- 11 C. Gakpo
Substitutes
- 8 E. Saad
- 6 D. Bronn
- 15 M. Belhaj Mahmoud
- 7 M. Achouri
- 26 S. Tounekti
- 4 O. Rekik
- 18 R. Elloumi
- 22 S. Ben Hsan
- 12 M. Ben Ouannes
- 14 K. Ayari
- 19 F. Chaouat
- 24 R. Chikhaoui
- 1 A. Chamakh
- 12 M. Wieffer
- 23 M. Flekken
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 13 R. Roefs
- 7 J. Kluivert
- 24 C. Summerville
- 25 J. Hato
- 15 M. van de Ven
- 3 M. de Roon
- 16 G. Til
- 9 W. Weghorst
- 17 N. Lang
- 20 T. Koopmeiners
- 26 Q. Timber
- 10 M. Depay
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