World Cup
Croatia - Ghana
06/27/2026, 09:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.3
0.8
1:1
14%1:0
13%0:0
12%2:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Croatia
Ghana
League
The Lab
- 1Croatia with Martin Baturina: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Ghana with Kamaldeen Sulemana: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- 3Ghana: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 4Croatia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Croatia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
51%
Draw
30%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
49%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Croatia has a 51% home win probability, supported by 1.46 predicted goals, emphasizing their favoritism
- Squad Impact (Ghana): Ghana's active starting lineup contributes only 0% to their usual strength, indicating a significant reduction in effectiveness
- Offensive Season Statistics: Croatia's season average of 3.25 goals per game is significantly higher than Ghana's 2.3 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Low Shots on Target: Ghana averaged only 2.4 shots on target recently, indicating a limited attacking threat
- Negative Form Trend: Both Croatia and Ghana show a "Negative" recent form trend according to Advanced Stats
- Missing Head-to-Head Data: The absence of head-to-head data restricts a complete historical analysis
Overview
Croatia hosts Ghana at Lincoln Financial Field in a World Cup group stage match on June 27, 2026, 11:00 PM. Croatia sits in 3rd place with 3 points, while Ghana is in 2nd place with 4 points. Both teams are competing for a spot in the next round.
Form
Croatia's form in their last five matches (all competitions): L-L-W-L-W, comprising 2 wins and 3 losses. Their last result was a 1-0 victory against Panama. Ghana's form (all competitions) is L-L-D-W-D, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their last game ended in a 0-0 draw against England. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Croatia has shown strong offense this season with an average of 3.25 goals scored per game and a solid defense conceding 0.5 goals per game. They kept 5 clean sheets and had 6 matches with over 2.5 goals. Ghana averages 2.3 goals scored per game and concedes 0.6 goals per game. They achieved 6 clean sheets and 5 matches with over 2.5 goals. Lincoln Financial Field averages 2.3 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 0 out of 4 matches, and 2 out of 4 matches featuring over 2.5 goals.
Key Players
For Croatia, Martin Baturina (1 season goal, 7.53 avg rating), Ante Budimir (1 season goal, 7.5 avg rating), and Ivan Perišić (1 season assist, 7.1 avg rating) are in the starting lineup. Baturina's form has been declining recently. For Ghana, Antoine Semenyo (1 goal in last 5 games, 6.36 avg rating), Jordan Ayew (6.7 avg rating), and Kamaldeen Sulemana (6.48 avg rating) are starting. Semenyo's form has been rising recently.
Goalkeepers
Croatian goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic has a season average rating of 7.2 and has kept 5 clean sheets. Ghana's goalkeeper Benjamin Asare has a season average rating of 7.37 and has kept 6 clean sheets.
Influences
Croatia has scored an average of 3.0 home goals and conceded 0.4 home goals per game. Ghana has scored an average of 2.2 away goals and conceded 0.6 away goals per game. Lincoln Financial Field records an average of 2.3 total goals per game, indicating a tendency for lower-scoring games with fewer instances of both teams scoring.