World Cup

Croatia - Ghana

06/27/2026, 09:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Croatia
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Ghana
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CROGHA

Croatia

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.56
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.17
Attack strength (1.25x league average)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 75, 66 places gap)
+0.10

Ghana

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.54
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.21
Standings disadvantage (pos 75 vs 9, 66 places gap)
-0.15
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.44
+0.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Croatia with Martin Baturina: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Ghana with Kamaldeen Sulemana: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Ghana: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Croatia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Croatia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

30%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: Croatia has a 51% home win probability, supported by 1.46 predicted goals, emphasizing their favoritism
  • Squad Impact (Ghana): Ghana's active starting lineup contributes only 0% to their usual strength, indicating a significant reduction in effectiveness
  • Offensive Season Statistics: Croatia's season average of 3.25 goals per game is significantly higher than Ghana's 2.3 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Low Shots on Target: Ghana averaged only 2.4 shots on target recently, indicating a limited attacking threat
  • Negative Form Trend: Both Croatia and Ghana show a "Negative" recent form trend according to Advanced Stats
  • Missing Head-to-Head Data: The absence of head-to-head data restricts a complete historical analysis
Overview

Croatia hosts Ghana at Lincoln Financial Field in a World Cup group stage match on June 27, 2026, 11:00 PM. Croatia sits in 3rd place with 3 points, while Ghana is in 2nd place with 4 points. Both teams are competing for a spot in the next round.

Form

Croatia's form in their last five matches (all competitions): L-L-W-L-W, comprising 2 wins and 3 losses. Their last result was a 1-0 victory against Panama. Ghana's form (all competitions) is L-L-D-W-D, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their last game ended in a 0-0 draw against England. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Croatia has shown strong offense this season with an average of 3.25 goals scored per game and a solid defense conceding 0.5 goals per game. They kept 5 clean sheets and had 6 matches with over 2.5 goals. Ghana averages 2.3 goals scored per game and concedes 0.6 goals per game. They achieved 6 clean sheets and 5 matches with over 2.5 goals. Lincoln Financial Field averages 2.3 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 0 out of 4 matches, and 2 out of 4 matches featuring over 2.5 goals.

Key Players

For Croatia, Martin Baturina (1 season goal, 7.53 avg rating), Ante Budimir (1 season goal, 7.5 avg rating), and Ivan Perišić (1 season assist, 7.1 avg rating) are in the starting lineup. Baturina's form has been declining recently. For Ghana, Antoine Semenyo (1 goal in last 5 games, 6.36 avg rating), Jordan Ayew (6.7 avg rating), and Kamaldeen Sulemana (6.48 avg rating) are starting. Semenyo's form has been rising recently.

Goalkeepers

Croatian goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic has a season average rating of 7.2 and has kept 5 clean sheets. Ghana's goalkeeper Benjamin Asare has a season average rating of 7.37 and has kept 6 clean sheets.

Influences

Croatia has scored an average of 3.0 home goals and conceded 0.4 home goals per game. Ghana has scored an average of 2.2 away goals and conceded 0.6 away goals per game. Lincoln Financial Field records an average of 2.3 total goals per game, indicating a tendency for lower-scoring games with fewer instances of both teams scoring.

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