World Cup
Norway - France
06/26/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.3
1.6
1:1
12%1:2
8%2:1
8%2:2
7%0:2
5%What influences the xG?
Norway
France
League
The Lab
- 1France: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2France: first goal in 6 of 6 games (100%)
- 3Norway with Andreas Schjelderup: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 4France: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 5France with Désiré Doué: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
26%
Away Win
37%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
41%
Under 3.5
59%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
63%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- Significant absences for Norway: Erling Haaland and Martin Ădegaard are missing, leaving only 36% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available
- France's tactical strength: The team has shown a possession-dominant style (59% possession) in their last 5 games with an average of 5.8 shots on target
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win and away win probability of 37% each
Risk Factors
- Short rest for Norway: The team had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Low goal average at venue: Gillette Stadium historically shows an average of 2.0 goals per game
- Norway's negative form trend: According to advanced stats, Norway's recent form shows a negative trend
Overview
Norway (2nd place, 6 points) faces France (1st place, 6 points) at Gillette Stadium in the World Cup. The match takes place on June 26, 2026, 7:00 PM. Both teams have shown strong performances in their respective groups so far and are level on points.
Form
Norway's form in the last five matches is DWDWW (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses). They have recorded two consecutive wins recently. France's form is WLWWW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss), with three consecutive wins being their latest trend. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Norway has averaged 4.63 goals scored per game and conceded 0.63 goals per game this season. At home, they average 4.6 goals scored and only 0.4 goals conceded. France averages 2.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded per game. Away from home, France scored 2.33 goals and conceded 1.0 goal per game. Gillette Stadium has seen an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last five matches. Both teams scored in 40% of games, and 40% ended with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between Norway and France.
Key Players
For Norway, JĂžrgen Strand Larsen is a key player with 2 goals in the last 3 games and an average rating of 7.17. Leo ĂstigĂ„rd scored 1 goal in 5 games and has a season rating of 6.87. Oscar Bobb recorded 1 assist in the last 5 games, and his form is rising with a rating of 6.91. For France, Kylian MbappĂ© stands out with 4 season goals (2.57 goals per 90 minutes) and 5 goals in the last 5 games, with a rating of 8.27. Michael Olise has 4 season assists, as well as 3 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 games, with a rating of 8.64. Ousmane DembĂ©lĂ© has 1 season goal and 1 assist, as well as 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 4 games, with a rating of 7.68.
Goalkeepers
Egil Selvik is listed as the goalkeeper for Norway. The team has achieved a total of 4 clean sheets this season. Mike Maignan is the goalkeeper for France. France has recorded 3 clean sheets this season.
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf. Norway shows a strong record on this surface with 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, scoring 8 goals and conceding 3. France is also successful on artificial turf with 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, scoring 5 goals and conceding 2. Gillette Stadium averages 2.0 goals per game historically.