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Norway – France1 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Norway
1.63
Total xG
3.26
France
1.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Norway | France |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 2.8 league avg) | −1.80 | |
| High-scoring league (4.1 goals/match) | +1.62 | +1.62 |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.56 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 31 vs 2, 29 places gap) | −0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Attack strength (1.52x league average) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 31, 29 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Erling Haaland on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Martin Ødegaard on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 72% of goal output missing (only 35% available) |
Key factors
- Significant absences for Norway: Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard are missing, leaving only 36% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available
- France's tactical strength: The team has shown a possession-dominant style (59% possession) in their last 5 games with an average of 5.8 shots on target
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win and away win probability of 37% each
Risks
- Short rest for Norway: The team had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Low goal average at venue: Gillette Stadium historically shows an average of 2.0 goals per game
- Norway's negative form trend: According to advanced stats, Norway's recent form shows a negative trend
All probabilities
Result
Norway37%
Draw26%
France37%
Double chance
Norway or draw63%
France or draw63%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
1:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- France: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- France: first goal in 6 of 6 games (100%)
- Norway with Andreas Schjelderup: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- France: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- France with Désiré Doué: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Norway 4-3-3 · France 4-2-3-1
Norway
- 13 E. Selvik
- 14 F. Aursnes
- 25 H. Falchener
- 4 L. Skiri Oestigaard
- 15 F. Bjørkan
- 18 K. Thorstvedt
- 6 P. Berg
- 19 T. Aasgaard
- 22 O. Bobb
- 11 J. Strand Larsen
- 21 A. Schjelderup
France
- 16 M. Maignan
- 5 J. Koundé
- 4 D. Upamecano
- 26 M. Lacroix
- 19 T. Hernández
- 8 A. Tchouaméni
- 6 K. Kone
- 7 O. Dembélé
- 11 M. Olise
- 20 D. Doue
- 10 K. Mbappé
Substitutes
- 20 A. Nordby Nusa
- 8 S. Berge
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 7 A. Sørloth
- 5 D. Wolfe
- 3 K. Vassbakk Ajer
- 24 S. Langås
- 10 M. Ødegaard
- 9 E. Haaland
- 23 J. Hauge
- 17 T. Heggem
- 12 S. Tangvik
- 2 M. Thorsby
- 16 M. Pedersen
- 1 B. Samba
- 23 R. Risser
- 25 M. Akliouche
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 12 B. Barcola
- 18 W. Zaire Emery
- 3 L. Digne
- 22 J. Mateta
- 15 I. Konaté
- 17 W. Saliba
- 24 M. Cherki
- 2 M. Gusto
- 9 M. Thuram
- 14 A. Rabiot
- 13 N. Kanté
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