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South Africa – Korea Republic1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
South Africa
1.28
Total xG
2.57
Korea Republic
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | South Africa | Korea Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.65 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.63 | +0.63 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.29 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 55 vs 23, 32 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 23 vs 55, 32 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a balanced match with both teams having a 35% win probability
- Korea Republic's offense shows more penetration with an average of 5.4 shots on target in the last 5 games, compared to South Africa's 3.2 shots on target
- The venue, Estadio BBVA Bancomer, has a high goal average, with 4.0 goals per game and 100% Over 2.5 in the last 5 matches
Risks
- South Africa will be without T. Zwane (Red Card Suspension) and T. Mokoena (Yellow Card Suspension)
- South Africa averaged only 3.2 shots on target in its last 5 games
- Both teams show a negative trend in their goal production according to Advanced Stats
All probabilities
Result
South Africa35%
Draw30%
Korea Republic35%
Double chance
South Africa or draw65%
Korea Republic or draw65%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- South Africa with Ime Okon: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Korea Republic with Hyeon-gyu Oh: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Korea Republic: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- South Africa: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
South Africa 4-2-3-1 · Korea Republic 3-4-2-1
South Africa
- 1 R. Williams
- 20 K. Mudau
- 21 I. Okon
- 14 M. Mbokazi
- 6 M. Modiba
- 5 T. Mbatha
- 13 S. Sithole
- 12 T. Maseko
- 10 R. Ratomo
- 7 O. Appollis
- 17 E. Makgopa
Korea Republic
- 1 S. Kim
- 2 H. Lee
- 4 M. Kim
- 3 G. Lee
- 22 Seol Young-Woo
- 8 S. Paik
- 6 I. Hwang
- 13 T. Lee
- 19 K. Lee
- 11 H. Hwang
- 18 H. Oh
Substitutes
- 9 L. Foster
- 24 O. Makhanya
- 2 T. Matuludi
- 3 K. Ndamase
- 18 S. Kabini
- 8 T. Moremi
- 23 J. Adams
- 22 R. Goss
- 19 N. Sibisi
- 16 S. Chaine
- 15 I. Rayners
- 25 K. Sebelebele
- 26 B. Cross
- 23 J. Castrop
- 10 J. Lee
- 25 J. Eom
- 17 J. Bae
- 20 H. Yang
- 9 K. Cho
- 7 H. Son
- 16 J. Park
- 15 M. Kim
- 5 T. Kim
- 26 D. Lee
- 12 B. Song
- 21 H. Cho
- 14 W. Cho
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