World Cup

South Africa - Korea Republic

06/25/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
South Africa
1.3
Total xG
2.6
Korea Republic
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
SAKR

South Africa

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.65
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.27
Standings disadvantage (pos 55 vs 23, 32 places gap)
-0.23
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

Korea Republic

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.29
Standings advantage (pos 23 vs 55, 32 places gap)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.05

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.63
+0.63
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    South Africa with Ime Okon: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Korea Republic with Hyeon-gyu Oh: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Korea Republic: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    South Africa: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

30%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a balanced match with both teams having a 35% win probability
  • Korea Republic's offense shows more penetration with an average of 5.4 shots on target in the last 5 games, compared to South Africa's 3.2 shots on target
  • The venue, Estadio BBVA Bancomer, has a high goal average, with 4.0 goals per game and 100% Over 2.5 in the last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • South Africa will be without T. Zwane (Red Card Suspension) and T. Mokoena (Yellow Card Suspension)
  • South Africa averaged only 3.2 shots on target in its last 5 games
  • Both teams show a negative trend in their goal production according to Advanced Stats
Overview

South Africa (4th place, 1 point) faces Korea Republic (2nd place, 3 points) at Estadio BBVA Bancomer. This World Cup match is scheduled for June 25, 2026, 2:00 AM. Both teams are competing in the group stage for advancement

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

South Africa's recent form is LDDLD

The team recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in its last 5 matches

The last match ended in a draw

Korea Republic's recent form is LWWWL

Korea Republic achieved 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses in its last 5 matches

The last match ended in a loss

Statistics

South Africa averages 1.7 goals scored per game and concedes 0.6 goals per game this season

In home games, South Africa scores an average of 1.83 goals and concedes 0.5 goals

Korea Republic averages 2.5 goals scored per game and concedes 0.5 goals per game this season

In away games, Korea Republic scores an average of 2.4 goals and concedes 0.3 goals

Estadio BBVA Bancomer recorded an average of 4.0 total goals in its last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 100% of the matches

Head-to-Head

No previous head-to-head meetings found between South Africa and Korea Republic

Key Players

For South Africa, Oswin Appollis is notable with 1 goal in the last 3 games and a rising form trend

Khuliso Mudau recorded 1 assist in the last 4 games with stable form

Ronwen Williams shows stable form as a goalkeeper

For Korea Republic, In-beom Hwang is crucial with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games, despite a declining form trend

Kang-in Lee contributed 1 assist in the last 3 games, also with a declining form trend

Hyeon-gyu Oh scored 1 goal in the last 5 games, with his form also declining

Goalkeepers

South Africa's goalkeeper Ronwen Williams has kept 5 clean sheets this season

Korea Republic's goalkeeper Seung-gyu Kim has recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

Estadio BBVA Bancomer shows a high average of 4.0 goals per game

80% of matches here saw both teams scoring

100% of matches had over 2.5 goals

South Africa scores an average of 1.83 goals at home and concedes 0.5 goals

Korea Republic scores an average of 2.4 goals away and concedes 0.3 goals

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