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Curacao – Côte d'Ivoire0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Curacao
1.72
Total xG
3.44
Côte d'Ivoire
1.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Curacao | Côte d'Ivoire |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4.1 goals/match) | +1.64 | +1.64 |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −1.35 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 2.9 league avg) | −1.19 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.27 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.06 |
Key factors
- Côte d'Ivoire's strong form with 4 wins in their last 5 games contrasts with Curacao's run of 4 losses and 1 draw
- Côte d'Ivoire has been defensively very stable this season with an average of 0.0 goals conceded and 10 clean sheets overall
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very balanced match with a 38% win probability for Curacao and a 38% win probability for Côte d'Ivoire
Risks
- Curacao averaged 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
- Although the pipeline predicts a 69% probability for 'Both Teams To Score', there have been no matches where both teams scored in the last 3 games at Lincoln Financial Field
- Curacao's defense has shown increased vulnerability in recent matches, conceding an average of 1.73 goals, significantly more than their season average of 0.5 goals
All probabilities
Result
Curacao38%
Draw25%
Côte d'Ivoire38%
Double chance
Curacao or draw62%
Côte d'Ivoire or draw62%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Côte d'Ivoire: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Curacao with Tahith Chong: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (4 of 7 games)
- Côte d'Ivoire with Franck Kessié: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Curacao: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Curacao 5-4-1 · Côte d'Ivoire 4-2-3-1
Curacao
- 1 E. Room
- 20 J. Brenet
- 3 J. Gaari
- 18 A. Obispo
- 24 D. Fonville
- 5 S. Floranus
- 21 T. Chong
- 8 L. Comenencia
- 10 L. Bacuna
- 7 J. Bacuna
- 9 J. Locadia
Côte d'Ivoire
- 1 Y. Fofana
- 17 G. Doué
- 7 K. Odilon
- 2 O. Diomande
- 13 C. Operi
- 18 I. Sangaré
- 8 F. Kessié
- 15 A. Traoré
- 19 N. Pépé
- 11 Y. Diomande
- 9 A. Bonny
Substitutes
- 15 A. Martha
- 12 S. Hansen
- 14 K. Gorré
- 13 T. Noslin
- 25 T. Bodak
- 17 B. Kuwas
- 2 S. Sambo
- 11 J. Antonisse
- 23 R. Bazoer
- 22 K. Felida
- 26 T. Doornbusch
- 4 R. van Eijma
- 6 G. Roemeratoe
- 16 J. Margaritha
- 19 G. Kastaneer
- 24 B. Touré
- 6 S. Fofana
- 12 S. Wahi
- 20 E. Agbadou
- 10 S. Adingra
- 22 E. Guessand
- 5 W. Singo
- 23 A. Lafont
- 21 O. N'Dicka
- 4 J. Seri
- 25 P. Guiagon
- 16 M. Kone
- 3 G. Konan
- 26 C. Inao Oulaï
- 14 O. Diakité
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