World Cup

Congo DR - Uzbekistan

06/27/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Congo DR
1.6
Total xG
2.4
Uzbekistan
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

13%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CDUZB

Congo DR

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-1.07
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.27
Standings disadvantage (pos 60 vs 54, 6 places gap)
-0.10

Uzbekistan

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.35
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.17
Standings advantage (pos 54 vs 60, 6 places gap)
+0.02
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.43
+0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Uzbekistan with Odildzhon Khamrobekov: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Uzbekistan: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

27%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Uzbekistan: Only 4% of goal production is available
  • Poor form for Uzbekistan: The team lost 4 of their last 5 games, including 4 consecutive losses
  • Home win probability for Congo DR: The mathematical analysis sees a home win with 57%
Risk Factors
  • Congo DR had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Congo DR averaged 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games (average)
  • Uzbekistan averaged 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games (low shots)
Overview

Congo DR host Uzbekistan at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium for a World Cup match on June 27, 2026, 11:30 PM

Congo DR is in 3rd place in their group with 1 point

Uzbekistan is in 4th place with 0 points

Both teams are fighting to stay in the tournament

Form

Congo DR's form in their last five games is DWDDL

This consists of 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Their last result was a loss

Uzbekistan is in a more difficult phase with a form of DLLLL in their last five games

This means 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

Uzbekistan has a streak of 4 consecutive losses

Statistics

Congo DR scored an average of 1.42 goals per game and conceded 0.58 goals this season

They kept 7 clean sheets

Uzbekistan is stronger offensively with an average of 1.69 goals per game, but also conceded 0.69 goals

Uzbekistan has 10 clean sheets

In home games, Congo DR scored an average of 1.4 goals and conceded 0.6 goals

Away from home, Uzbekistan scored an average of 1.62 goals and conceded 1.0 goals

Mercedes-Benz Stadium has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game across 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

There are no previous head-to-head matches between Congo DR and Uzbekistan available in the dataset

Key Players

For Congo DR, Yoane Wissa is an important attacker with 1 season goal and 1 goal in the last 5 games, with a season average rating of 6.94

Arthur Masuaku, a defender, provided 1 assist this season and 1 assist in the last 5 games, with an average rating of 6.92

Goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi-Nzau has a season average rating of 7.15

For Uzbekistan, Abbosbek Fayzullaev contributed with 1 season goal and 1 goal as well as 1 assist in the last 5 games, with an average rating of 6.96

Eldor Shomurodov scored 1 goal in the last 5 games and has a season average rating of 6.73

Defender Abdukodir Khusanov showed a rising form in the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.58

Goalkeepers

Congo DR's goalkeeper, Lionel Mpasi-Nzau, has a season average rating of 7.15 and the team achieved 7 clean sheets

Uzbekistan's goalkeeper Abduvokhid Nematov has a season average rating of 4.59, while his team recorded 10 clean sheets

Influences

The match will take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on artificial turf

Congo DR has a record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss with 5:3 goals on artificial turf

Uzbekistan has a record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss with 0:5 goals on artificial turf

The stadium averages 3.0 goals per game, with a BTTS rate of 60% and an Over 2.5 rate of 60%

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