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Türkiye – United States3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Türkiye
1.11
Total xG
2.46
United States
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Türkiye | United States |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.45 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | −0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 27 vs 16, 11 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 16 vs 27, 11 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Alex Freeman on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Folarin Balogun on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 58% of goal output missing (only 20% available) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact for the United States: Only 20% of usual starting XI strength without Alex Freeman (1G/1A) and Folarin Balogun (2G/0A)
- Table situation: The United States lead with 6 points, while Türkiye is at 0 points after 2 losses
- Türkiye's offensive strength: Türkiye averaged 5.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Risks
- The United States concede an average of 2.75 goals per game this season
- Türkiye has a negative record on artificial turf with 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss
All probabilities
Result
Türkiye29%
Draw30%
United States40%
Double chance
Türkiye or draw60%
United States or draw71%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
10%
0:1
10%
1:2
9%
1:0
8%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- United States: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Türkiye with Zeki Çelik: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- United States with Sergiño Dest: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- United States: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)
- United States: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Türkiye 3-4-2-1 · United States 4-3-3
Türkiye
- 23 U. Çakır
- 2 M. Çelik
- 15 O. Kabak
- 14 A. Bardakcı
- 24 O. Aydın
- 5 S. Özcan
- 6 O. Kökçü
- 13 E. Elmalı
- 8 A. Guler
- 11 K. Yildiz
- 21 B. Yılmaz
United States
- 1 M. Turner
- 23 J. Scally
- 12 M. Robinson
- 22 M. McKenzie
- 6 A. Trusty
- 8 W. McKennie
- 14 S. Berhalter
- 7 G. Reyna
- 11 B. Aaronson
- 9 R. Pepi
- 21 T. Weah
Substitutes
- 20 F. Kadıoğlu
- 26 C. Uzun
- 12 A. Bayındır
- 22 K. Ayhan
- 19 Y. Akgün
- 10 H. Çalhanoğlu
- 18 M. Müldür
- 7 M. Aktürkoğlu
- 4 C. Söyüncü
- 17 İ. Kahveci
- 16 İ. Yüksek
- 9 D. Gül
- 1 F. Günok
- 3 M. Demiral
- 25 S. Akaydin
- 5 A. Robinson
- 17 M. Tillman
- 20 F. Balogun
- 4 T. Adams
- 3 C. Richards
- 19 H. Wright
- 2 S. Dest
- 10 C. Pulisic
- 16 A. Freeman
- 18 M. Arfsten
- 25 C. Brady
- 13 T. Ream
- 24 F. Matthew
- 26 A. Zendejas Saavedra
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