World Cup
Türkiye - United States
06/26/2026, 02:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.5
1.3
1:1
14%0:0
10%0:1
10%1:2
9%1:0
8%What influences the xG?
Türkiye
United States
The Lab
- 1United States: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Türkiye with Zeki Çelik: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 3United States with Sergiño Dest: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 4United States: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)
- 5United States: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
29%
Draw
30%
Away Win
40%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
60%
Away or Draw
71%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Critical squad impact for the United States: Only 20% of usual starting XI strength without Alex Freeman (1G/1A) and Folarin Balogun (2G/0A)
- Table situation: The United States lead with 6 points, while Türkiye is at 0 points after 2 losses
- Türkiye's offensive strength: Türkiye averaged 5.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
- The United States concede an average of 2.75 goals per game this season
- Türkiye has a negative record on artificial turf with 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss
Overview
Türkiye (4th place, 0 points) host the United States (1st place, 6 points) at SoFi Stadium. World Cup match on June 25, 2026, 7:00 PM. Türkiye urgently needs points, while the United States aim to extend their group lead. The mathematical analysis slightly favors the United States with a 40% win probability, while a draw is predicted at 30% and a home win at 29%.
Form
Türkiye recently showed inconsistent form with WWWLL, corresponding to 3 wins and 2 losses. Their last two matches were losses. The United States showed a form of LWLWW, with 3 wins and 2 losses. The United States won their last two matches. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Türkiye averages 2.38 goals scored per game and concedes 1.5 goals per game this season. In home games, the average is 2.33 goals scored and 2.33 goals conceded. The United States averages 1.5 goals scored per game and concedes 2.75 goals per game this season. Türkiye has kept 3 clean sheets so far, while the United States has none. At SoFi Stadium, the last 4 games averaged 3.5 total goals per match. Both teams scored in 75% of games, and 75% of games had over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the only head-to-head encounter, the United States won with a score of 2:1. The United States scored 2 goals in this match, Türkiye scored 1 goal. The last meeting took place on June 7, 2025.
Key Players
For Türkiye, Barış Alper Yılmaz is in good form, with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and an average rating of 6.94. Orkun Kökçü contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.33. Arda Güler provided 1 assist in his last 5 appearances with an average rating of 7.01. For the United States, Giovanni Reyna with 1 goal in the last 5 games (rating 6.67) and Ricardo Pepi with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games (rating 6.87) are important attacking forces. Weston McKennie shows a season rating of 7.14.
Goalkeepers
Türkiye's goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır recorded 3 clean sheets this season. Matt Turner, the United States goalkeeper, has not achieved any clean sheets this season.
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf. Türkiye has a record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss (0:2 goals) on this surface. The United States has a record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses (11:10 goals) on artificial turf. SoFi Stadium's last 4 games show an average of 3.5 total goals per match. Both teams scored in 75% of games and 75% of games had over 2.5 goals.