Match report →
Senegal – Iraq5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Senegal
2.62
Total xG
3.35
Iraq
0.73
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Senegal | Iraq |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −1.23 | |
| High-scoring league (3.4 goals/match) | +0.94 | +0.94 |
| Standings advantage (pos 18 vs 58, 40 places gap) | +0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 58 vs 18, 40 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Senegal with 77% probability
- Critically: Only 14% of Senegal's goal production is currently available
- Senegal's consistent season scoring (avg. 2.2 goals per game) and solid defense (avg. 0.3 goals conceded per game) contrast with Iraq's stagnant offensive performance (recent avg. 0.8 goals) and very few shots on target (recent avg. 1.6 per game)
Risks
- Senegal has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Iraq averaged only 1.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Senegal77%
Draw16%
Iraq7%
Double chance
Senegal or draw93%
Iraq or draw23%
No draw84%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.543%
Under 3.557%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
3:0
11%
2:1
9%
3:1
8%
1:1
8%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Senegal with Moussa Niakhaté: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 5.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Senegal 4-3-3 · Iraq 4-2-3-1
Senegal
- 23 M. Diaw
- 15 K. Diatta
- 4 A. Seck
- 19 M. Niakhaté
- 14 I. Jakobs
- 21 M. Diarra
- 5 I. Gueye
- 8 L. Camara
- 20 I. Mbaye
- 18 I. Sarr
- 10 S. Mané
Iraq
- 22 A. Fadhil
- 26 F. Putros
- 2 R. Sulaka Adhamat
- 5 A. Rahman
- 23 M. Doski
- 14 Z. Iqbal
- 16 A. Al-Ammari
- 11 A. Qasem
- 17 A. Al Tameemi
- 8 I. Bayesh
- 9 A. Al-Hamadi
Substitutes
- 11 N. Jackson
- 9 Bamba Dieng
- 26 P. Gueye
- 1 Y. Diouf
- 24 A. Mendy
- 2 M. Sarr
- 13 I. Ndiaye
- 25 E. Diouf
- 17 P. Sarr
- 6 P. Ciss
- 12 P. Ndiaye
- 7 A. Diao Diaoune
- 3 K. Koulibaly
- 22 B. Sapoko Ndiaye
- 7 Y. Amyn
- 21 M. Farji
- 19 K. Yakob
- 1 F. Raheem
- 4 Z. Hantoosh
- 13 A. Hashim
- 10 M. Ali
- 25 M. Saadoun Al Korji
- 20 A. Sher
- 3 H. Ali
- 18 A. Hussein
- 24 Z. Al Dulaimi
- 15 A. Hasan
- 6 M. Younnes
- 12 J. Hachim
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →