World Cup
Senegal - Iraq
06/26/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.6
3.3
0.7
2:0
12%3:0
11%2:1
9%3:1
8%1:1
8%What influences the xG?
Senegal
Iraq
League
The Lab
- 1Senegal with Moussa Niakhaté: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 5.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
77%
Draw
16%
Away Win
7%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
65%
Under 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
43%
Under 3.5
57%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
93%
Away or Draw
23%
No Draw
84%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Senegal with 77% probability
- Critically: Only 14% of Senegal's goal production is currently available
- Senegal's consistent season scoring (avg. 2.2 goals per game) and solid defense (avg. 0.3 goals conceded per game) contrast with Iraq's stagnant offensive performance (recent avg. 0.8 goals) and very few shots on target (recent avg. 1.6 per game)
Risk Factors
- Senegal has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Iraq averaged only 1.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Senegal (3rd place, 0 points) faces Iraq (4th place, 0 points) at BMO Field in a World Cup match. This is a crucial group stage game on June 26, 2026, 8:00 PM. Both teams are at the bottom of the table and urgently need points for progression.
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Senegal's form in the last five matches is WLDLL, with one win, one draw, and three losses. Their last match ended in a loss.
Iraq's form in the last five matches is WDLLL, also with one win, one draw, and three losses. Iraq has suffered three consecutive losses recently.
Statistics
Senegal has scored an average of 2.2 goals per game and conceded 0.3 goals per game this season. In home games, the average is 2.17 goals scored and only 0.17 goals conceded.
Iraq has scored an average of 1.5 goals per game and conceded 0.65 goals per game this season. Away from home, the team scored an average of 1.56 goals and conceded 0.67 goals.
Senegal consistently scores around 2.1 goals per game.
Iraq's goal production is stagnant at 0.8, while their season average is 1.1.
BMO Field has seen an average of 2.6 goals per match in the last five games. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and 2 of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals.
Key Players
For Senegal, Sadio Mané (3 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games, avg. 7.07 rating), Ismaïla Sarr (2 goals in last 5 games, avg. 6.76 rating), and Ibrahim Mbaye (1 goal in last 3 games, avg. 6.89 rating) are key offensive players.
For Iraq, Amir Al-Ammari (2 assists in last 4 games, avg. 6.73 rating), Ali Al-Hamadi (1 goal in last 4 games, avg. 6.65 rating), and Merchas Doski (1 goal in last 3 games, avg. 6.96 rating) are among the key performers.
Goalkeepers
Senegal's goalkeeper Mory Diaw has an average rating of 6.50 in the last five games. Senegal has kept eight clean sheets this season.
Ahmed Basil Fadhil, Iraq's goalkeeper, achieved an average rating of 6.65 in his last three games. Iraq has recorded twelve clean sheets this season.
Influences
Senegal's home strength is evident with an average of 2.17 goals scored and only 0.17 goals conceded per home game.
BMO Field has an average of 2.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches and over 2.5 goals occurring in 40% of matches. The pitch surface is grass.