World Cup

England - Congo DR

07/01/2026, 04:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
England
2.0
Total xG
2.5
Congo DR
0.5
Most Likely Scores

2:0

17%

1:0

16%

3:0

12%

0:0

9%

1:1

9%
What influences the xG?
ENGCD

England

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-1.18
Attack strength (1.35x league average)
-0.17
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 60, 56 places gap)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.03

Congo DR

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 60 vs 4, 56 places gap)
-0.09
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.03
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    England with Djed Spence: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    England: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)

  • 3
    Yoane Wissa: 2 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

74%

Draw

20%

Away Win

6%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

94%

Away or Draw

26%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

33%

No

67%

Key Factors
  • England is a clear favorite to win with a 74% probability according to mathematical analysis
  • England in their last 5 games: possession-dominant (70% possession), averaged 6.4 shots on target (offensively strong)
  • Congo DR in their last 5 games: counter-oriented (42% possession), averaged 2.8 shots on target (average offensively)
Risk Factors
  • Congo DR averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

England (1st place, 7 points) faces Congo DR (3rd place, 4 points) at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. This World Cup match takes place on July 1, 2026, 6:00 PM. The Three Lions are clear favorites and aim to advance to the next round.

Form

England shows strong form with WWWDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) from their last five matches across all competitions. The home team recorded 4 wins and 1 draw. The last result was a 2-0 victory against Panama. Congo DR played WDDLW in their last five games, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their last match ended in a 3-1 win against Uzbekistan.

Statistics

England has averaged 2.75 goals scored and conceded 0 goals per game this season. At home, they average 3 goals scored and 0 goals conceded per game. Congo DR scored an average of 1.42 goals and conceded 0.58 goals per game this season. Away from home, they averaged 1.43 goals scored and 0.57 goals conceded. The Mercedes-Benz Stadium has seen an average of 3.2 total goals per game in 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals scored in 3 out of 5 games. England is currently scoring more frequently (2.5) than their season average (2.0), while Congo DR scores consistently (approximately 1.2 goals per game).

Head-to-Head

There are no historical head-to-head matches between England and Congo DR in the provided dataset.

Key Players

For England, Harry Kane with 3 goals and Jude Bellingham with 2 goals and 1 assist this season are crucial. Marcus Rashford has also scored 1 goal this season. Harry Kane recorded 4 goals in his last 5 games with stable form. Jude Bellingham scored 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games with stable form. For Congo DR, Yoane Wissa is the top scorer with 3 season goals. Arthur Masuaku contributed 1 assist. Nathanaël Mbuku is also an attacking option.

Goalkeepers

England's goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has kept 8 clean sheets this season. For Congo DR, Lionel Mpasi-Nzau has recorded 7 clean sheets this season.

Influences

England has a record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses (6:2 goals) on artificial turf. Congo DR has a record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss (8:4 goals) on artificial turf. The Mercedes-Benz Stadium is known for an average of 3.2 goals per game, with a 60% chance for both teams to score and a 60% chance for over 2.5 goals.

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