World Cup

Switzerland - Algeria

07/03/2026, 03:00 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Switzerland
1.3
Total xG
2.1
Algeria
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

14%

0:0

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SWIALG

Switzerland

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.57
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.24
Standings advantage (pos 17 vs 38, 21 places gap)
+0.09
Full strength squad available

Algeria

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.43
Standings disadvantage (pos 38 vs 17, 21 places gap)
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.14
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Switzerland: first goal in 6 of 6 games (100%)

  • 2
    Switzerland: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Switzerland with Silvan Widmer: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Algeria with FarĆØs ChaĆÆbi: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 4.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 5
    Algeria: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

32%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 46% win probability for Switzerland, with 1.30 expected home goals compared to 0.84 expected goals for Algeria
  • Critical attacking efficiency: Switzerland has only 50% of their goal production available, while Algeria has only 17%
  • Switzerland's robust defense: They concede an average of only 0.33 goals per game, while Algeria's current form trend is negative
Risk Factors
  • The absence of head-to-head data means a limited historical assessment of direct encounters
  • Algeria's current form is described as 'Negative' in the advanced statistics, indicating potential struggles
  • BC Place Stadium has a high goal rate of an average of 4.2 goals per game, which could lead to an unpredictable match flow
Overview

Switzerland (1st place, 7 points) faces Algeria (3rd place, 4 points) at BC Place Stadium. This World Cup match takes place on July 3, 2026, 4:00 AM. Switzerland leads its group, while Algeria is fighting for qualification.

Form

Switzerland shows good form with WDDWW in their last five games across all competitions. This equates to 3 wins and 2 draws. They recently recorded 2 consecutive wins.

Algeria has a form of WWLWD in their last five games, corresponding to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Their last result was a draw.

Statistics

Switzerland has scored an average of 2.33 goals per game this season and conceded only 0.33 goals. In home games, the average is 2.2 home goals and 0.2 home goals conceded per game. They kept 4 clean sheets.

Algeria recorded an average of 2.4 goals per game and 0.8 goals conceded this season. Away from home, they score 2.5 goals and concede 0.5 goals. They achieved 3 clean sheets.

BC Place Stadium has an average of 4.2 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 matches and 4 out of 5 matches ending with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head matches between Switzerland and Algeria.

Key Players

For Switzerland, Johan Manzambi stands out with 3 season goals and 1 assist, showing stable form. Breel Embolo has 1 season goal and 2 assists, also displaying stable form. RubƩn Vargas contributed 2 goals and 1 assist, but his form is declining.

On Algeria's side, Riyad Mahrez is an important player with 2 goals and 2 assists this season, though his form is declining. Houssem Aouar contributed 2 assists, but also shows declining form. Rafik Belghali scored 1 goal.

Goalkeepers

Switzerland's goalkeeper, Gregor Kobel, recorded 4 clean sheets this season. For Algeria, Luca Zidane achieved 3 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Switzerland has a positive record on artificial turf with 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal difference of 6:2. No data is available for Algeria on artificial turf.

BC Place Stadium has averaged 4.2 goals per game in 5 matches played, with over 2.5 goals in 80% of matches. This suggests a tendency towards high-scoring encounters.

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