World Cup

Argentina - Cape Verde Islands

07/03/2026, 10:00 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Argentina
2.6
Total xG
3.1
Cape Verde Islands
0.4
Most Likely Scores

2:0

16%

3:0

14%

4:0

9%

2:1

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
ARGCVI

Argentina

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 2.2 league avg)
-1.38
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.25
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 70, 67 places gap)
+0.17
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.13

Cape Verde Islands

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 0.8 league avg)
+0.34
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 70 vs 3, 67 places gap)
-0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.06

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Argentina: first goal in 8 of 8 games (100%)

  • 2
    Cape Verde Islands: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)

  • 3
    Argentina: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Argentina with Nico Paz: 3.3 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

83%

Draw

13%

Away Win

4%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

96%

Away or Draw

17%

No Draw

87%

Both Score

Yes

34%

No

66%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: Argentina is the clear favorite with a win probability of 83%
  • Current Form: Argentina is in top form with 5 consecutive wins, Cape Verde Islands with 3 draws
  • Offensive Strength: Argentina scores more frequently recently (2.4) than their season average (2.2)
Risk Factors
  • Lack of Head-to-Head History: No previous direct meetings are recorded in the dataset
  • Opponent's Defensive Resilience: Cape Verde Islands showed resilience with 3 consecutive draws, including against stronger opponents
Overview

Argentina (1st place, 9 points) host Cape Verde Islands (2nd place, 3 points) at the Hard Rock Stadium. This World Cup match takes place on July 3, 2026, 10:00 PM. Argentina has dominated the group stage and aims for group victory, while Cape Verde Islands are surprisingly in second place and fighting for a spot in the knockout phase.

Form

Argentina is in top form with a run of 5 consecutive wins (WWWWW)

In these 5 matches, the team scored 13 goals and conceded only 1 goal

Cape Verde Islands were undefeated in their last 5 games with 2 wins and 3 draws (WWDDD)

In their last 5 matches, they scored 8 goals and conceded 2 goals

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Argentina shows an offensive record this season with an average of 1.72 goals per game and a strong defense with only 0.56 goals conceded per game

At home, Argentina averages 1.67 goals scored and concedes only 0.33 goals per home game

Cape Verde Islands average 1.6 goals scored per game this season and concede 0.8 goals

Away from home, Cape Verde Islands have scored an average of 1.67 goals and conceded 1.33 goals per match

The Hard Rock Stadium has seen an average of 2.25 total goals per game in 4 matches played

Both teams scored in 2 out of 4 games (50%), and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 4 games (50%)

Head-to-Head

The dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between Argentina and Cape Verde Islands

Key Players

For Argentina, Lionel Messi stands out with 6 season goals and an average rating of 9.03

Lautaro MartĂ­nez contributed 1 season goal

Rodrigo De Paul shone with 1 season assist and an average rating of 7.05

For Cape Verde Islands, Kevin Lenini impressed with 1 season goal and an average rating of 7.0

Roberto Lopes shows a strong average rating of 7.31

Deroy Duarte achieved an average rating of 6.94

Goalkeepers

Emiliano MartĂ­nez of Argentina kept 11 clean sheets this season

Vozinha of Cape Verde Islands recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

Argentina benefits from its strong home defense, allowing an average of only 0.33 goals per game

Cape Verde Islands concede an average of 1.33 goals per away game

The Hard Rock Stadium has recorded an average of 2.25 goals per game across 4 matches

According to venue statistics, 50% of matches ended with both teams scoring and 50% with over 2.5 goals

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