World Cup
South Africa - Canada
06/28/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.4
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
11%0:1
9%1:0
9%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
South Africa
Canada
The Lab
- 1South Africa with Jayden Adams: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- 2Canada: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games
- 3Canada with Derek Cornelius: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 4South Africa: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 5Canada: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
31%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- South Africa's active goal production is critically low, with only 12% of their usual goal threat available
- Canada displays a stronger offense, averaging 2.4 recent goals and 5.4 shots on target, compared to South Africa's current 0.8 goals and 4.0 shots on target
- Despite very balanced mathematical predictions (home and away wins 35% each, draw 31%), SoFi Stadium statistics suggest high-scoring matches (avg 3.8 goals, 80% BTTS)
Risk Factors
- South Africa has only 3 days rest since the last match
- Canada concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
Overview
South Africa (2nd place, 4 points) faces Canada (2nd place, 4 points) at SoFi Stadium
World Cup match on June 28, 2026, 7:00 PM
Both teams are tied on points in their group and are battling for advancement to the next round
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
South Africa shows a form of DDLDW
This includes 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Their last appearance ended in a win against Korea Republic (1-0)
Canada displays a form of WDDWL
This means 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
They lost their last game against Switzerland (1-2)
Statistics
South Africa averaged 1.7 goals scored per game this season and conceded 0.6 goals per game
The team kept 5 clean sheets
Canada averaged 2.67 goals scored per game and conceded 1.0 goal per game
Canada achieved 1 clean sheet
SoFi Stadium has an average of 3.8 total goals per game over 5 matches
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches (80% BTTS)
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches (80%)
Head-to-Head
No previous head-to-head meetings between South Africa and Canada were found
Key Players
For South Africa, Thapelo Maseko (1 goal in 2 appearances, avg 7.03 rating) and Teboho Mokoena (1 goal in 2 appearances, avg 7.55 rating) are key offensive players
Oswin Appollis (avg 6.82 rating) also featured in 3 appearances
For Canada, Jonathan David stands out with 3 goals in 3 appearances (avg 7.61 rating)
Nathan-Dylan Saliba contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in 2 appearances (avg 7.88 rating)
Tani Oluwaseyi provided 2 assists in 3 appearances (avg 6.66 rating)
Goalkeepers
Ronwen Williams, South Africa's goalkeeper, appeared in 3 season games and kept 5 clean sheets
His average rating is 6.71
Maxime Crêpeau, Canada's goalkeeper, played in 3 matches and recorded 1 clean sheet
His average rating is 6.47
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf at SoFi Stadium
South Africa has a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss (4:4 goals) on artificial turf
Canada has a record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss (7:2 goals) on artificial turf
SoFi Stadium has a tendency for high-scoring games with an average of 3.8 goals per match