World Cup
Colombia - Ghana
07/04/2026, 01:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.6
0.7
2:0
14%1:1
11%2:1
9%3:0
9%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Colombia
Ghana
League
The Lab
- 1Colombia: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- 2Ghana with Issahaku Fatawu: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- 3Ghana: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games
- 4Colombia: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 14)
- 5Colombia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
66%
Draw
23%
Away Win
11%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
89%
Away or Draw
34%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Colombia's possession-dominant play with an average of 6.0 shots on target in the last 5 games
- Ghana's counter-attacking style with an average of only 2.4 shots on target in the last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Colombia with 66% probability and 1.90 expected goals
Risk Factors
- Ghana's low average of 2.4 shots on target in the last 5 games
- Lack of head-to-head data for both teams, making historical tendencies unclear
Overview
Colombia host Ghana at Arrowhead Stadium for a World Cup match on July 4, 2026, 2:30 AM. Colombia (1st place, 7 points) are the favorites against Ghana (3rd place, 4 points). Both teams are playing for advancement in the World Cup
Form
Colombia shows strong current form with WWWWD, featuring 4 wins and 1 draw. The last match ended in a draw. The positive form trend is underscored by a run of four wins in the last five games. Ghana's form is mixed with LDWDL, comprising 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, and a negative form trend. Ghana lost their last match
Statistics
Colombia averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per season. At home, these values improve to 1.6 goals scored and 0.7 goals conceded per game. Ghana shows strong attacking performance this season with an average of 2.3 goals scored and concedes only 0.6 goals per game. Away from home, the values are consistent with 2.2 goals scored and 0.6 goals conceded per game. Colombia kept 7 clean sheets, while Ghana recorded 6 clean sheets. For Colombia, 9 games ended with 'Both teams scored' and 9 games with over 2.5 goals, while for Ghana, 3 games had 'Both teams scored' and 5 games had over 2.5 goals. Arrowhead Stadium averaged 3.25 goals in 4 matches, with both teams scoring in 2 of 4 games and over 2.5 goals in 3 of 4 games. Advanced stats indicate that Colombia is currently scoring more frequently (2.3) than their season average (1.9), while Ghana's goal production is faltering (0.8), with a season average of 1.5
Head-to-Head
There are no head-to-head matches between Colombia and Ghana in the dataset
Key Players
For Colombia, Luis DĂaz (attacker) stands out with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games, Jhon Arias (attacker) scored 2 goals in the last 5 games, and James RodrĂguez (midfielder) provided 2 assists in the last 5 games. For Ghana, Caleb Yirenkyi (midfielder) has 2 goals in the last 5 games, Derrick Luckassen (defender) has 1 goal in the last 5 games, and Antoine Semenyo (attacker) scored 1 goal in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Colombia's goalkeeper Camilo Vargas made 3 season appearances and contributed to 7 clean sheets. Ghana's goalkeeper Lawrence Ati Zigi played in 1 season appearance and contributed to 6 clean sheets
Influences
Arrowhead Stadium is known for matches averaging 3.25 goals. In half of the games, both teams scored, and three-quarters of the games had over 2.5 goals. Colombia shows a strong defense at home with an average of 0.7 goals conceded and an effective offense with 1.6 goals per home game. Ghana displays a solid defense away from home with an average of 0.6 goals conceded, while their offense is also convincing with 2.2 goals per away game. The grass surface is a standard factor