World Cup
United States - Bosnia and Herzegovina
07/02/2026, 12:00 AM
Expected Goals
2.3
3.1
0.8
2:0
12%2:1
9%1:1
9%3:0
9%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
United States
Bosnia and Herzegovina
League
The Lab
- 1United States: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Bosnia and Herzegovina with Sead Kolasinac: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- 3Bosnia and Herzegovina: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 4United States with Sergiño Dest: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 5United States: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
70%
Draw
20%
Away Win
10%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
90%
Away or Draw
30%
No Draw
80%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- High win probability for the USA: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 70%
- Strong home offense for the USA: The USA scores an average of 3.0 home goals per game and the model predicts 2.28 expected home goals
- Form and league position: The USA (1st place) shows better form (WLWWL) than Bosnia and Herzegovina (3rd place, DDDLW)
Risk Factors
- Limited offensive strength of Bosnia and Herzegovina: According to the description, only 71% of the usual starting XI's strength for goal production is available
- Low shot-on-target efficiency of Bosnia and Herzegovina: Bosnia and Herzegovina recorded an average of only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
United States (1st place, 6 points) host Bosnia and Herzegovina (3rd place, 4 points) at Levi's Stadium. This World Cup match takes place on July 2, 2026, 2:00 AM. The USA aims for group victory, while Bosnia and Herzegovina needs crucial points to advance
Form
The USA showed a form of WLWWL in their last five matches, corresponding to 3 wins and 2 losses. Their last match ended in a loss. Bosnia and Herzegovina has a form of DDDLW in their last five matches, with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss. Their last match was a win. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
The USA scored an average of 2.67 goals per game this season and conceded 1.33 goals. At home, their average is 3.0 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 3 matches. United States is currently scoring more frequently (2.4) than their season average (2.1). Bosnia and Herzegovina scored an average of 1.9 goals per game and conceded 0.9 goals. Away, their average is 1.83 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded. They kept 3 clean sheets, while over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 of 10 matches. Bosnia and Herzegovina's goal production is stagnant (1.5), season average is 1.8
Head-to-Head
No head-to-head matches between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina are available in the provided dataset for this encounter
Key Players
For the USA, Folarin Balogun with 2 season goals, Alex Freeman with 1 season goal and 1 assist, and Christian Pulisic with 1 season assist (1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games) are important players. For Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kerim Alajbegovic with 1 season goal, Sead Kolasinac with 1 season assist, and Edin Džeko are to be noted
Goalkeepers
Matt Freese is in goal for the USA. The USA has achieved a total of 1 clean sheet. Nikola Vasilj is listed as goalkeeper for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bosnia and Herzegovina has achieved 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match takes place on natural grass at Levi's Stadium. The stadium has an average of 2.0 goals per game in the 5 previous matches. In 3 of 5 matches, both teams scored, and in 2 of 5 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored