World Cup
Portugal - Croatia
07/02/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
11%2:1
8%0:1
8%What influences the xG?
Portugal
Croatia
The Lab
- 1Portugal: first goal in 5 of 5 games (100%)
- 2Portugal with Rúben Neves: 1 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 3Croatia with Petar Musa: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 4Croatia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Croatia: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
31%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Prediction Advantage: The mathematical analysis gives Portugal a 40% win probability and 71% for a home win or draw
- Offense vs. Defense: Portugal's high scoring rate (3.33 goals/game) meets Croatia's strong defense (0.5 goals conceded/game)
- Recent Form: Portugal is unbeaten in 5 games, while Croatia recorded 2 losses in their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
- Head-to-Head: Croatia won the only direct encounter with a score of 2-1
- Venue Trend: BMO Field shows a tendency for fewer goals with an average of 2.4 total goals and only 40% of games exceeding 2.5 goals
- Form Trend: Portugal's recent goal production (2.3 goals) is below their season average (2.6 goals), similar to Croatia (1.4 goals compared to 2.6 goals)
Overview
Portugal (2nd place, 5 points) faces Croatia (2nd place, 6 points) in the World Cup Round of 16 at BMO Field. This crucial knockout match takes place on July 2, 2026, 11:00 PM. Both teams finished second in their groups and are battling for a spot in the quarter-finals.
Form
Portugal is unbeaten in their last five matches (WWDWD)
They recorded 3 wins and 2 draws during this period
The last appearance was a draw
Croatia's form in their last five games is LWLWW
This means 3 wins and 2 losses
The last match was a win
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Portugal averaged 3.33 goals scored per game and conceded 1.17 goals this season
Croatia scored an average of 3.25 goals per game and conceded only 0.5 goals
Portugal kept 2 clean sheets, Croatia 5 clean sheets
Both teams scored in 3 of Portugal's games and 3 of Croatia's games
BMO Field recorded an average of 2.4 total goals per game
In 2 out of 5 games at BMO Field, both teams scored
2 out of 5 games at BMO Field ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between Portugal and Croatia so far
Croatia won this game 2-1
The last encounter took place on June 8, 2024
Key Players
Cristiano Ronaldo is an important offensive player with 2 goals and 0 assists in 3 season appearances
Bruno Fernandes has 0 goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.62
Diogo Costa, the goalkeeper, has a season average rating of 7.72
For Croatia, Martin Baturina scored 1 goal in 3 season appearances with a rating of 7.26
Luka Modrić contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games with a rating of 7.13
Dominik Livakovic is the goalkeeper with an average rating of 6.9
Goalkeepers
Diogo Costa of Portugal has a season average rating of 7.72 and 2 clean sheets
Dominik Livakovic of Croatia has a season average rating of 6.9 and 5 clean sheets
Influences
The match will be played on a natural grass surface at BMO Field
Portugal's home stats show an average of 3.0 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded
Croatia's away stats show an average of 3.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded
BMO Field has an average of 2.4 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of matches