World Cup

Spain - Austria

07/02/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Spain
1.6
Total xG
2.4
Austria
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

13%

2:0

13%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SPAAUS

Spain

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.67
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 22, 21 places gap)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.05
Attack strength (1.41x league average)
+0.01

Austria

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.41
Standings disadvantage (pos 22 vs 1, 21 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Marko Arnautovic on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 93% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Spain with Álex Baena: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Austria with Paul Wanner: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Spain: first goal in 5 of 5 games (100%)

  • 4
    Austria: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

27%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Spain with a 57% probability
  • Offensive Strength: Spain has averaged 3.50 goals per game this season and conceded only 0.33 goals
  • Artificial Turf Advantage: Spain has a strong record (2W-1D-0L) on artificial turf, while Austria is weaker (0W-0D-1L)
Risk Factors
  • Austria had a short recovery period of only 4 days since their last match
  • Spain's recent goal production has slowed (2.3) compared to their season average (3.0)
  • Austria's recent goal production has slowed (1.6) compared to their season average (2.5)
Overview

Spain (1st place, 7 points) faces Austria (2nd place, 4 points) in the World Cup Round of 16. The match takes place on July 2, 2026, 9:00 PM CEST, at SoFi Stadium. Spain enters as group winners, while Austria advanced as runners-up.

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Spain is unbeaten in their last 5 matches, showing a form of DWDWW

The team recorded 3 wins and 2 draws

Their last victory was a 1-0 against Uruguay

Austria has a form of WWWLD

This includes 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

The last match ended in a 3-3 draw against Algeria

Statistics

Spain has scored an average of 3.50 goals per game and conceded 0.33 goals this season

The team achieved 5 clean sheets and had both teams score in 1 match

Austria has scored an average of 2.75 goals per game and conceded 0.50 goals

The team kept 4 clean sheets and had both teams score in 3 matches

At SoFi Stadium, an average of 3.0 goals per game have been scored

Both teams scored in 60% of matches at SoFi Stadium, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not list any head-to-head matches between Spain and Austria

Key Players

For Spain, Mikel Oyarzabal, Lamine Yamal, and Dani Olmo are key players

Mikel Oyarzabal has 2 goals and 1 assist this season, with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Lamine Yamal recorded 1 goal and 0 assists this season, with 3 goals in the last 5 games and rising form

Dani Olmo provided 1 assist this season and 2 assists in the last 5 games

For Austria, Marcel Sabitzer, Romano Schmid, and David Alaba are noteworthy

Marcel Sabitzer scored 1 goal this season and 2 goals in the last 5 games

Romano Schmid contributed 1 goal this season and 1 goal in the last 5 games

David Alaba recorded 1 assist this season and also 1 assist in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Unai SimĂłn is Spain's goalkeeper and achieved 5 clean sheets this season

Alexander Schlager guards Austria's goal and recorded 4 clean sheets with rising form

Influences

The match will be played at SoFi Stadium on artificial turf

At SoFi Stadium, an average of 3.0 goals per game were scored, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches

Spain has a record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses (5:0 goals) on artificial turf

Austria, however, recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss (0:2 goals) on artificial turf

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