World Cup
Brazil - Japan
06/29/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.2
0.9
1:1
15%1:0
13%0:0
13%2:0
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Brazil
Japan
The Lab
- 1Japan: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 2Japan: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 3Japan with Tsuyoshi WatanabeĀ : 1.3 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 4Brazil: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Brazil with Endrick: 3.4 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
32%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
38%
Under 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
18%
Under 3.5
82%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Brazil is missing a significant portion of their goal production (only 29% available)
- Japan's extremely strong defense, conceding an average of 0.19 goals per game, is a key to their success
- Brazil shows a strong offense with an average of 7.6 shots on target, while Japan only manages 4.0 on average
Risk Factors
- Both teams have a negative record on artificial turf (Brazil 0W-1D-2L, Japan 0W-2D-0L)
- Japan's current goal production of 1.8 goals per game is below their season average of 2.1 goals
Overview
Brazil (1st place, 7 points) faces Japan (2nd place, 5 points) at NRG Stadium
World Cup Round of 16 match on June 29, 2026, 5:00 PM
Brazil qualified as group winners, Japan as group runners-up
This match determines who advances to the quarter-finals of the tournament
Form
Brazil is in strong form with WWDWW
In the last 5 matches, they achieved 4 wins and 1 draw, without any losses
They have won their last two games
Japan's form is WWDWD
In the last 5 matches, they achieved 3 wins and 2 draws, without any losses
Japan recently drew 1-1, following a 4-0 victory
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Brazil averages 1.33 goals scored per game and concedes 0.94 goals
Japan shows a very strong offense with an average of 3.38 goals per game and an extremely stable defense conceding 0.19 goals per game
In home games, Brazil scores 1.29 goals and concedes only 0.36 goals
Japan concedes only 0.25 goals per away game
Brazil is currently scoring more frequently (3.0) than their season average (1.8)
Japan's goal production is faltering (1.8), while the season average is 2.1
NRG Stadium sees an average of 4.2 goals per game
In 3 of 5 matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and in 3 of 5 matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
There have been a total of 2 head-to-head matches between Brazil and Japan
Both teams have secured 1 win each, with no draws
The goal difference is 6:4 in favor of Brazil
The last encounter on October 14, 2025, ended 2:3 for Brazil
The recent head-to-head record is even
Key Players
For Brazil, Vinicius Junior with 4 season goals and 1 assist, Matheus Cunha with 3 season goals, and Bruno GuimarĆ£es with 3 assists are important players
Vinicius Junior shows a declining form trend over the last 5 games (FormTrend -0.21)
Matheus Cunha also has a declining form (FormTrend -0.50)
For Japan, Ayase Ueda with 2 goals and 1 assist, Daichi Kamada with 2 goals, and Keito Nakamura with 1 goal and 1 assist are key players
Ayase Ueda (FormTrend -0.64), Daichi Kamada (FormTrend -0.31), and Keito Nakamura (FormTrend -0.21) all show a declining form trend
Goalkeepers
Alisson is the goalkeeper for Brazil, who achieved 6 clean sheets this season
For Japan, Zion Suzuki is in goal; his team recorded an impressive 13 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf
Brazil has a record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses (2:4 goals) on artificial turf
Japan has a record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses (3:3 goals) on artificial turf
NRG Stadium records an average of 4.2 goals per game