World Cup
France - Sweden
06/30/2026, 09:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.6
0.7
2:0
13%1:1
12%2:1
9%3:0
8%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
France
Sweden
The Lab
- 1France: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2France: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)
- 3Sweden with Isak Hien: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 4Sweden: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5France with Désiré Doué: 3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
62%
Draw
25%
Away Win
13%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
87%
Away or Draw
38%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for France with a 62% probability
- Form and Statistics: France shows significantly better form with 4 consecutive wins and stronger offensive power (Avg 2.67 goals) compared to Sweden (Avg 1.25 goals)
- Artificial Turf Record: France has a perfect record on artificial turf (3W-0D-0L), whereas Sweden struggles (0W-1D-1L)
Risk Factors
- Sweden's Defense: The team concedes an average of 1.88 goals per game this season
- Artificial Turf Adjustment: Sweden's negative record on artificial turf (0W-1D-1L, 2:6 goals) could be a disadvantage
- Injury: I. Hien (Unknown Injury) is missing for Sweden
Overview
France (1st place, 9 points) face Sweden (3rd place, 4 points) in the World Cup Round of 16 at MetLife Stadium. The match is scheduled for June 30, 2026, 10:00 PM. France enter as group winners, Sweden as a third-placed team.
Form
France's form across all competitions (LWWWW) shows 4 wins and 1 loss from their last 5 matches
The team has achieved 4 consecutive wins
Sweden (LDWLD) has 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
The last match ended in a draw
Statistics
France averages 2.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded per game this season
At home, France averages 3.00 goals scored and 0.33 goals conceded
Sweden averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 goals conceded per game
Away, the average is 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded
France kept 3 clean sheets, while Sweden recorded none
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 of France's 6 games and 4 of Sweden's 8 games
MetLife Stadium has seen an average of 3.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games at this stadium, and 3 out of 5 ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the 2 head-to-head matches between these two teams, France and Sweden each secured 1 win
Both teams scored a total of 3 goals
Sweden won the last encounter 2-1 on June 9, 2017
The record of recent meetings is even
Key Players
For France, Kylian Mbappé (4 goals, 2 assists, Avg Rating 8.18), Ousmane Dembélé (4 goals, 1 assist, Avg Rating 8.25), and Michael Olise (0 goals, 4 assists, Avg Rating 7.96) are key attacking players
Mbappé and Dembélé show a slightly declining form trend, while Olise is stable with 3 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 games
For Sweden, Alexander Isak (1 goal, 3 assists, Avg Rating 7.64), Viktor Gyökeres (1 goal, 2 assists, Avg Rating 7.41), and Anthony Elanga (2 goals, 0 assists, Avg Rating 7.43) are important players
All three exhibit a declining form trend
Goalkeepers
France's goalkeeper Mike Maignan recorded 3 clean sheets this season
Sweden's goalkeeper Jacob Widell Zetterström has not kept a clean sheet this season
Influences
France has a perfect record on artificial turf with 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal difference of 9:3
Sweden, in contrast, has a record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss on artificial turf with a goal difference of 2:6
MetLife Stadium is a high-scoring arena, averaging 3.2 goals per game