World Cup

Belgium - Senegal

07/01/2026, 08:00 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Belgium
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Senegal
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BELSEN

Belgium

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.55
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.23
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Attack strength (1.3x league average)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 18, 10 places gap)
+0.07

Senegal

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.43
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 8, 10 places gap)
-0.11
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Belgium with Charles De Ketelaere: 3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Senegal with Moussa NiakhatƩ: 2 goals/game. Without: 5.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Belgium: 79% of all goals in the second half (15 of 19, last 8 games)

  • 4
    Senegal: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

30%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Senegal's goal production is significantly limited with only 36% of seasonal output available
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a win for Belgium with a probability of 46%
  • Belgium's form with 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 games is stronger than Senegal's (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
Risk Factors
  • Belgium's goal production has stalled recently according to analysis (seasonal average 3.7, currently 3.3)
  • No data on previous head-to-head encounters is available, which complicates the analysis
Overview

Belgium host Senegal at Lumen Field

World Cup match on July 1, 2026, 8:00 PM

Belgium finished 1st in their group with 5 points

Senegal finished 3rd in their group with 3 points

Form

Belgium is in good form with 3 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 matches (Form: WWDDW)

Belgium won their last match 5-1 against New Zealand

Senegal has achieved 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches (Form: LDLLW)

Senegal recently won 5-0 against Iraq

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Belgium averaged 3.63 goals per game this season and conceded 0.88 goals

Senegal impresses with an average of 2.20 goals scored and only 0.30 goals conceded per game

At Lumen Field, an average of 2.4 goals per game have been scored

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches at this stadium

Over 1.5 goals occurred in all 5 matches at Lumen Field

Head-to-Head

There are no previous head-to-head encounters between Belgium and Senegal in the provided dataset

Key Players

Belgium: Leandro Trossard (3 goals, 1 assist in 5 games, Avg. 7.52 Rating), Kevin De Bruyne (2 goals in 5 games, Avg. 7.73 Rating), Youri Tielemans (1 goal, 1 assist in 5 games, Avg. 7.62 Rating)

Senegal: IsmaĆÆla Sarr (3 goals, 1 assist in 5 games, Avg. 7.16 Rating), Pape Gueye (2 goals, 1 assist in 4 games, Avg. 7.22 Rating), Iliman Ndiaye (1 goal, 2 assists in 4 games, Avg. 7.06 Rating)

Goalkeepers

Thibaut Courtois (Belgium) has achieved 4 clean sheets this season

Mory Diaw (Senegal) boasts an impressive record of 8 clean sheets this season

Courtois shows stable form, while Diaw's form is declining

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Belgium has a record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses (12:5 goals) on artificial turf

Senegal has a poorer record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 3 losses (6:9 goals) on artificial turf

Lumen Field has averaged 2.4 goals per game

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