World Cup
Germany - Paraguay
06/29/2026, 08:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.2
0.8
1:1
14%1:0
14%0:0
13%2:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Germany
Paraguay
The Lab
- 1Germany: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2Paraguay: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 3Germany: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 4Paraguay with Antonio Sanabria: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- 5Paraguay: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
49%
Draw
31%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
66%
Under 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
38%
Under 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
18%
Under 3.5
82%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
51%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Paraguay's significantly reduced offensive output, with only 14% of their season goal production available
- Germany's strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 5 games, coupled with a dominant tactical approach of 60% possession and an average of 7.6 shots on target
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 50% win probability for Germany and higher expected goals (1.40 vs 0.80)
Risk Factors
- Paraguay with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Germany is missing N. Schlotterbeck, who contributed 6% of their season goals, with only 56% of the active goal share available
Overview
Germany faces Paraguay at Gillette Stadium in a World Cup match. The game is scheduled for June 29, 2026, 9:30 PM. Germany finished the group stage in 1st place with 6 points, while Paraguay ended in 3rd place with 4 points. For both teams, it's about advancing to the next round of the tournament
Form
Germany shows strong form with 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. Most recently, they suffered a 1-2 away loss against Ecuador, but before that, secured wins against CĂ´te d'Ivoire (2-1), Curacao (7-1), United States (2-1), and Finland (4-0). Paraguay has a mixed record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 fixtures. Their last match was a 0-0 draw against Australia. Prior to that, they had a 1-0 win against TĂźrkiye and a 1-4 loss against the United States. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Germany displays a strong offense with an average of 2.67 goals per game this season and 2.6 home goals per game. Their defense is also robust with an average of 0.5 goals conceded per game and only 0.2 home goals conceded. Paraguay has a weaker offense with 0.78 goals per game and concedes an average of 0.56 goals per match. Away from home, Paraguay scores 0.83 goals and concedes 1.17 goals. At Gillette Stadium, there has been an average of 2.4 total goals in 5 games. Both teams scored in 40% of matches, and 40% of games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
No head-to-head matches between Germany and Paraguay were found in the available data
Key Players
For Germany, Kai Havertz with 4 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and Deniz Undav with 5 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 games are important offensive players. Joshua Kimmich contributed 4 assists in the last 5 matches. For Paraguay, Julio Enciso is an important midfielder with 2 assists in his last 4 games. MatĂas Galarza Fonda scored 1 goal in his last 2 appearances, and Gabriel Ăvalos scored once in 3 games
Goalkeepers
Manuel Neuer, Germany's goalkeeper, has achieved 4 clean sheets this season. Orlando Gill, Paraguay's goalkeeper, recorded 10 clean sheets this season
Influences
The home team Germany has a record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss (8:3 goals) on artificial turf. Paraguay has a record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss (3:6 goals) on artificial turf. Gillette Stadium recorded an average of 2.4 total goals per game in 5 matches played