World Cup
Netherlands - Morocco
06/30/2026, 01:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.0
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
15%0:1
12%1:0
11%0:2
7%What influences the xG?
Netherlands
Morocco
The Lab
- 1Netherlands with Denzel Dumfries: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Netherlands: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 3Morocco: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 4Netherlands: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 5Netherlands: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
34%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
62%
Under 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis expects an extremely balanced match, with a home win probability of 32% and an away win probability of 34%.
- Offensive Power: The Netherlands average 3.38 goals per season, Morocco 2.75 goals per season, indicating a high-scoring game.
- Defensive Strength: Morocco has an extremely strong defense, conceding only 0.25 goals per game this season, while the Netherlands concede 0.5 goals per game.
Risk Factors
- Balanced form of both teams: The Netherlands (LWDWW) and Morocco (WDDWW) recently show strong performances, making the match unpredictable.
- Similar tactical strengths: Both teams are possession-dominant (Netherlands 60% possession, Morocco 59% possession) and offensively strong with an average of 6.0 shots on target.
- Data quality indicates no previous head-to-head matches, which complicates historical assessment.
Overview
The Netherlands face Morocco at Estadio BBVA Bancomer in this World Cup match on June 30, 2026, at 3:00 AM. Both teams concluded their group stage with 7 points, the Netherlands as group winners with 10 goals scored and 4 conceded, and Morocco as group runners-up with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. A tight knockout stage match is anticipated.
Form
The Netherlands show a current form of LWDWW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) in their last five games. They recently secured a 3-1 victory against Tunisia and a 5-1 win against Sweden. Morocco is in excellent shape with WDDWW (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) from their last five matches. Morocco defeated Haiti 4-2 and Scotland 1-0. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
The Netherlands scored an average of 3.38 goals per game in 8 season matches and conceded 0.5 goals per game. At home, they were particularly strong with an average of 3.4 goals scored and only 0.2 goals conceded per home game. Morocco boasts a strong offense with 2.75 goals per game and an outstanding defense with 0.25 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Morocco scored an average of 3 goals and conceded 0.25 goals. At Estadio BBVA Bancomer, the last 5 games saw an average of 3.6 total goals per game. Both teams scored in 60% of matches, and 80% ended with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
No historical head-to-head matches between these two teams were found in the provided dataset.
Key Players
For the Netherlands, Cody Gakpo is a key attacking player with 2 goals and 1 assist this season, contributing 4 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Brian Brobbey has scored 3 goals this season and 3 goals in his last 5 appearances. Crysencio Summerville added 2 goals and 1 assist. For Morocco, Ismael Saibari stands out with 3 goals this season and an impressive 5 goals in the last 5 games. Brahim Díaz recently showed good form with 1 goal and 2 assists, while Achraf Hakimi also contributed to the offense with 1 goal and 1 assist.
Goalkeepers
Bart Verbruggen for the Netherlands has an average rating of 6.88 this season. The Netherlands have recorded 5 clean sheets. Yassine Bounou for Morocco has a season rating of 6.49. Morocco has achieved 6 clean sheets this season.
Influences
The match takes place at Estadio BBVA Bancomer on a grass surface. The venue has a high average goal rate of 3.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches. The home team scored an average of 3.4 goals and conceded only 0.2 goals per home game, suggesting a significant home advantage, even if this is a neutral World Cup stadium.