World Cup

Mexico - Ecuador

07/01/2026, 02:00 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Mexico
1.2
Total xG
2.0
Ecuador
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

10%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
MEXECU

Mexico

Attack strength (1.2x league average)
-0.33
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.21
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 14 vs 24, 10 places gap)
+0.05

Ecuador

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.23
Standings disadvantage (pos 24 vs 14, 10 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mexico: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Mexico with Edson Álvarez: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Ecuador with Willian Pacho: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

34%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Mexico's perfect group stage form with five consecutive wins and only 0.25 goals conceded on season average makes them favorites
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Mexico with 42% probability and 1.15 expected home goals
  • Ecuador shows an improved offense (currently 1.8 goals) compared to their season average (1.4 goals), indicating more attacking threat
Risk Factors
  • Ecuador's very strong season defense (0.28 goals conceded on average, 13 clean sheets) could pose a challenge for Mexico
  • The pipeline prediction indicates a high 34% probability of a draw, suggesting a tight match
  • The only direct head-to-head match between these two teams resulted in a 1-1 draw
Overview

Mexico (1st place, 9 points) host Ecuador (3rd place, 4 points) at Estadio Banorte

World Cup match on July 1, 2026, 3:00 AM

Mexico enters as group winners, while Ecuador is fighting for progression

Form

Mexico shows an immaculate form with five wins in their last five matches (WWWWW)

Mexico won their last game 3-0 against the Czech Republic

Ecuador has achieved three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five games (WWLDW)

Ecuador recently won 2-1 against Germany

Statistics

Mexico is offensively strong this season with an average of 1.88 goals per game and defensively outstanding with only 0.25 goals conceded on average

The team recorded 6 clean sheets and both teams scored in 2 matches

Ecuador scores an average of 0.78 goals per game and has a very strong defense with only 0.28 goals conceded per match

Ecuador achieved 13 clean sheets and both teams scored in only 3 matches

At Estadio Banorte, an average of 2.6 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and 3 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There has only been one head-to-head match between Mexico and Ecuador so far

Their only encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on October 15, 2025

Key Players

Mexico: Roberto Alvarado with a season average rating of 7.53 and 2 assists

Julián Quiñones with a season average rating of 7.5 and 2 goals

Luis Romo with a season average rating of 7.32, 1 goal and 1 assist

Ecuador: Pedro Vite with a season average rating of 7.61 and 1 assist

Moisés Caicedo with a season average rating of 7.6

Gonzalo Plata with a season average rating of 7.33 and 1 goal

Goalkeepers

Mexico's goalkeeper Raúl Rangel has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Ecuador's goalkeeper Hernán Galíndez has recorded 13 clean sheets this season

Influences

The grass pitch at Estadio Banorte serves as the playing surface

Mexico scored an average of 1.86 home goals and conceded 0.29 home goals

Ecuador scored an average of 0.75 away goals and conceded 0.75 away goals

Estadio Banorte recorded an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 encounters

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