World Cup
Paraguay - France
07/04/2026, 09:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
3.1
1.5
1:1
12%1:2
8%2:1
8%2:2
6%0:2
6%What influences the xG?
Paraguay
France
League
The Lab
- 1France: first goal in 8 of 8 games (100%)
- 2France: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Paraguay: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 4Paraguay: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 5France: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
27%
Away Win
37%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
63%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
63%
No
37%
Key Factors
- Balanced forecast: The model predicts a 37% win probability for both teams, with a 27% chance of a draw
- Form disparity: France shows perfect form with 5 consecutive wins, while Paraguay has a mixed form of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
- Offensive strength vs. counter-attacking tactics: France is possession-dominant (60% possession) and offensively strong (avg. 7.8 shots on target), while Paraguay is counter-oriented (25% possession) with avg. 4.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Short recovery time: France has had only 4 days rest since their last match
- Offensive weakness: Paraguay averages only 0.75 goals per home game
- Low scoring threat: Paraguay has averaged only 0.78 goals per game this season and failed to score in 9 matches
Overview
Paraguay (3rd place, 4 points) faces France (1st place, 9 points) at Lincoln Financial Field. This World Cup Round of 16 match takes place on July 4, 2026, 11:00 PM. Both teams are fighting for a spot in the quarter-finals.
Form
Paraguay's form in their last five matches is WLWDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). This includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their last two games ended in a draw. France is in top form with five consecutive wins (WWWWW). They have won all of their last five matches, showing consistent performance. In their last outing, Paraguay drew 1-1 with Germany, while France won 3-0 against Sweden.
Statistics
Paraguay has averaged 0.78 goals scored and 0.56 goals conceded per game this season. They kept 10 clean sheets and had over 2.5 goals in 4 matches. At home, they scored 0.75 goals and conceded 0.25 goals. France is very strong offensively, averaging 2.67 goals per game and conceding 0.67 goals. They recorded 3 clean sheets and had 5 matches with over 2.5 goals. Away from home, France scored 2.33 goals and conceded 1.00 goal. Lincoln Financial Field has seen an average of 2.4 total goals across 5 games. Both teams scored in 20% of matches, and 60% had over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
No head-to-head data between Paraguay and France is available in the provided dataset.
Key Players
For Paraguay, key players include midfielder Julio Enciso with 1 goal and 2 assists this season, and midfielder MatĂas Galarza Fonda with 1 goal and 1 assist. Goalkeeper Orlando Gill has an average rating of 7.29. For France, forward Kylian MbappĂ© stands out with 6 goals and 2 assists this season, and Michael Olise (attacker) with 3 goals and 5 assists in the last 5 games. Ousmane DembĂ©lĂ© (attacker) contributed 4 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games.
Goalkeepers
Paraguay's goalkeeper Orlando Gill has an average rating of 7.29 in 4 appearances. The team has kept 10 clean sheets this season. France's goalkeeper Mike Maignan has an average rating of 6.88 in 4 appearances. France has recorded 3 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Lincoln Financial Field averages 2.4 total goals per game. Only 20% of matches saw both teams score, while 60% of games had over 2.5 goals. Paraguay scored an average of 0.75 goals in home games and conceded 0.25 goals. France scored an average of 2.33 goals in away games and conceded 1.00 goal.