World Cup
Brazil - Norway
07/05/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.3
1.0
1:1
14%1:0
12%0:0
11%2:0
9%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Brazil
Norway
The Lab
- 1Norway: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 2Norway with Torbjørn Heggem: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 3Brazil with Endrick: 3.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 4Brazil: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Norway: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
31%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Brazil has a home win probability of 45% according to mathematical analysis.
- Squad Impact: Brazil's offense is critically impacted, with only 38% of goal production available, without L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima.
- Tactical Comparison: Brazil showed strong offensive play in their last 5 games with an average of 6.6 shots on target, while Norway averaged 4.4 shots on target.
Risk Factors
- Limited Data: No previous head-to-head matches are available for these teams.
- Pitch Conditions: Brazil's record on artificial turf is negative with 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses.
- Form Trend: Norway's goal production is currently stagnating (2.2 goals), with a season average of 3.2 goals.
Overview
Brazil (1st place, 7 points) faces Norway (2nd place, 6 points) in the World Cup Round of 16 at MetLife Stadium.
The match is scheduled for July 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM.
Brazil enters this encounter as the favorite.
Form
Brazil is in excellent form with four wins and one draw in their last five matches (WDWWW).
They have won their last three consecutive games.
Norway recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches (DWWLW).
The Norwegian team managed to win their most recent game.
Statistics
Brazil averages 1.33 goals scored per game and concedes 0.94 goals per game this season.
At home, Brazil is particularly strong defensively, conceding an average of only 0.36 goals per home game, while scoring 1.29 home goals.
Norway shines with an impressive average of 4.63 goals scored per game this season, conceding 0.63 goals.
Away from home, Norway scores an impressive 4.67 goals per game and concedes 1.00 goal.
MetLife Stadium sees an average of 3.4 total goals per game, and both teams score in 60% of matches.
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of the games at this stadium.
Key Players
For Brazil, Vinicius Junior is a key player with 4 season goals and 1 assist, although his form is slightly declining.
Bruno Guimarães is in rising form with 1 goal and 4 assists in his last 5 games.
Matheus Cunha contributed 3 season goals and shows stable form.
For Norway, Erling Haaland is crucial with 5 season goals in his last 4 games, but his form is declining.
Martin Ødegaard provided 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 games and shows stable form.
Patrick Berg recorded 2 assists in his last 5 games and is also in stable form.
Goalkeepers
Alisson, Brazil's goalkeeper, recorded 6 clean sheets this season.
Ørjan Nyland, Norway's goalkeeper, has collected 4 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Brazil has a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses (4:5 goals) on artificial turf.
Norway shows a significantly stronger performance on artificial turf with 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss (11:8 goals).
MetLife Stadium has proven to be high-scoring with an average of 3.4 goals per game and an Over 2.5 rate of 80%.