World Cup
United States - Belgium
07/07/2026, 12:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.4
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
11%0:1
11%1:2
9%1:0
8%What influences the xG?
United States
Belgium
The Lab
- 1United States: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Belgium with Charles De Ketelaere: 3.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 3Belgium: 82% of all goals in the second half (18 of 22, last 8 games)
- 4Belgium: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Senegal: 3 goals (86', 89', 120+5')
- 5United States with Sergiño Dest: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
28%
Draw
31%
Away Win
41%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
59%
Away or Draw
72%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: Belgium has a higher win probability of 41% compared to 28% for United States
- Offensive strength: Belgium shows a stronger offense with an average of 4.00 away goals per game compared to United States' 2.67 home goals
- Historical dominance: Belgium won both previous head-to-head matches with a goal difference of 7:3
Risk Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high draw probability of 31%
- United States' home record on artificial turf is balanced with 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses
Overview
United States (1st place, 6 points) host Belgium (1st place, 5 points) at Lumen Field. This is an important World Cup match on July 7, 2026, 02:00 AM. Both teams aim to win their group to secure a good starting position.
Form
United States' current form across all competitions is LWWLW (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). Their last result was a win. Belgium comes into the match in better shape with WDDWW (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses). They have won their last two consecutive matches. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
United States score an average of 2.50 goals per game and concede 1.00 goal per game this season. At home, they average 2.67 goals scored and 0.33 goals conceded. Belgium is more offensive with an average of 3.63 goals scored per game and 0.88 goals conceded. Away from home, Belgium scores an average of 4.00 goals and concedes 1.33 goals. At Lumen Field, 5 games have averaged 3.0 goals, both teams scored in 80% of matches, and 40% ended with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the 2 head-to-head matches played so far, United States have no home wins, while Belgium secured 2 away wins, with 0 draws. The goal difference is 3:7 in favor of Belgium. The last encounter saw Belgium win 5:2 on March 28, 2026. Belgium has been dominant in recent matchups.
Key Players
For United States, Folarin Balogun with 3 season goals, Malik Tillman with 1 season goal and 1 assist, and Christian Pulisic with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games are key offensive players. For Belgium, Leandro Trossard stands out with 2 season goals and 2 assists (recently 3 goals and 1 assist), Youri Tielemans with 2 season goals (recently 2 goals and 1 assist), and Charles De Ketelaere with 1 goal in the last 5 games.
Goalkeepers
Matt Freese of United States has kept 2 clean sheets this season. Thibaut Courtois of Belgium has kept 4 clean sheets.
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf. United States' record on this surface is 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses with a goal difference of 13:13. Belgium has a stronger record on artificial turf with 3 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses with a goal difference of 15:7. Lumen Field sees an average of 3.0 goals per game, with an 80% BTTS rate.