World Cup

Switzerland - Colombia

07/07/2026, 08:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Switzerland
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Colombia
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

10%

1:0

10%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
SWICOL

Switzerland

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.59
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.13
Johan Manzambi not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Rubén Vargas on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 61% available)

Colombia

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.49
Attack strength (1.33x league average)
-0.32
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.14
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Switzerland: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)

  • 2
    Colombia: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 3
    Switzerland: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Switzerland with Silvan Widmer: 2.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Colombia with Jhon CĂłrdoba: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

32%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a very close match, with a home win probability of 32% for Switzerland and 36% for Colombia
  • Switzerland showed strong form in their last 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws, while Colombia is also in top form with 4 wins and 1 draw
  • BC Place Stadium has recorded an average of 4.2 goals per game in 5 matches, suggesting a potentially high-scoring game
Risk Factors
  • Colombia had a very short recovery time of only 3 days since their last match
  • Switzerland is missing Johan Manzambi (3G/2A) and RubĂ©n Vargas (2G/1A), leaving only 61% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available
  • Both teams recently show stagnating goal production compared to their season average: Switzerland with an average of 2.3 vs 2.9 goals and Colombia with an average of 1.7 vs 1.9 goals
Overview

Switzerland (1st place, 7 points) faces Colombia (1st place, 7 points) at BC Place Stadium

World Cup match on July 7, 2026, 8:00 PM

Both teams finished top of their groups

This is a crucial knockout match for progression to the next round

Form

Switzerland has achieved a form of DDWWW in their last 5 matches

This includes 3 wins and 2 draws

They have recorded 3 consecutive wins recently

Colombia shows a form of WWWDW in their last 5 matches

This means 4 wins and 1 draw

The team recently celebrated a win, following a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Switzerland scored an average of 2.33 goals per game this season and conceded 0.33 goals

At home, they averaged 2.2 goals scored and conceded only 0.2 goals

They kept 4 clean sheets

Colombia scored an average of 1.56 goals per season and conceded 1.0 goal

Away from home, they scored 1.5 goals per game and conceded 1.38 goals

They kept 7 clean sheets

BC Place Stadium recorded an average of 4.2 goals per game in 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches

Key Players

For Switzerland: Breel Embolo, an attacker, scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists in his last 5 games and has a stable form trend

Dan Ndoye, also an attacker, scored 2 goals in his last 5 appearances and shows a rising form trend

Granit Xhaka in midfield contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games and has a stable form trend

For Colombia: Jhon Arias, an attacker, scored 3 goals in his last 5 games and shows a rising form trend

Daniel Muñoz, a defender, scored 2 goals in his last 5 games and has a stable form trend

Luis DĂ­az, an attacker, recorded 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 games and has a stable form trend

Goalkeepers

In goal for Switzerland is Gregor Kobel

Switzerland has achieved 4 clean sheets this season

For Colombia, Camilo Vargas is in goal

Colombia kept 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place on artificial turf

Switzerland has a positive record on this surface with 3 wins and no draws or losses, with 8:2 goals

Colombia has a record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss on artificial turf, with 1:1 goals

BC Place Stadium is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 4.2 goals per match here

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