World Cup

Canada - Morocco

07/04/2026, 05:00 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Canada
0.8
Total xG
2.5
Morocco
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

0:2

11%

1:2

10%

0:3

6%

1:3

5%
What influences the xG?
CANMOR

Canada

Standings disadvantage (pos 26 vs 11, 15 places gap)
-0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
+0.13
Cyle Larin on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 64% available)

Morocco

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.57
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 26, 15 places gap)
+0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.01
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Morocco: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Canada: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games

  • 3
    Canada with Cyle Larin: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Morocco with Anass Salah-Eddine: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 5
    Morocco: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

17%

Draw

27%

Away Win

55%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

45%

Away or Draw

83%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Model prediction: Morocco has a win probability of 55% and is significantly ahead in expected goals with 1.67 compared to Canada (0.85)
  • Defensive strength: Morocco appears defensively very stable with only 0.25 goals conceded per game
  • Consistency in form: Morocco is unbeaten in their last 5 games and has a better point total than Canada
Risk Factors
  • Canada is without Cyle Larin, meaning only 65% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available
  • Morocco had a shorter break of only 4 days since their last match
  • Morocco's recent goal production is stalling at 1.6 goals, while the season average is 2.3
Overview

Canada hosts Morocco at NRG Stadium in a World Cup match on July 4, 2026, 6:00 PM

Canada is in 2nd place with 4 points, while Morocco is also in 2nd place with 7 points

Both teams are fighting for crucial points in the tournament

Form

Canada's form in the last 5 games is DDWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

The last win was a 1-0 away victory against South Africa

This was followed by a 1-2 away loss against Switzerland

Then came a clear 6-0 home win against Qatar

Previously, they drew 1-1 at home against Bosnia and Herzegovina and 1-1 against Republic of Ireland

Morocco is unbeaten in their last 5 games with a form of DDWWD

They achieved 2 wins and 3 draws

Their last match was a 1-1 away draw against Netherlands

Before that, they had a 4-2 home win against Haiti and a 1-0 away win against Scotland

Two draws followed with 1-1 away against Brazil and 1-1 at home against Norway

Statistics

Canada scores an average of 2.25 goals per game this season and concedes 0.75 goals

They kept 2 clean sheets

Morocco boasts a season average of 2.75 goals scored and only 0.25 goals conceded

They managed to keep 6 clean sheets

In home games, Canada averages 2.33 goals scored and concedes 0.33 goals

Morocco scores an average of 3 goals in away games and concedes 0.25 goals

At NRG Stadium, an average of 3.2 total goals were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Canada and Morocco

Morocco won this game away with a score of 2-1

The last encounter took place on December 1, 2022

The historical record indicates a dominance for Morocco

Key Players

For Canada, Jonathan David is an important attacker with 3 season goals in 4 appearances

Stephen Eustaquio in midfield has 1 season goal in 4 appearances

Alistair Johnston in defense shows an average rating of 7.11 over 4 season appearances

For Morocco, Achraf Hakimi is a crucial player with 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 season appearances and an average rating of 8.00

Ismael Saibari in midfield has scored 3 goals in 4 season appearances

Brahim DĂ­az in attack contributed 2 assists in 4 season appearances and scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Maxime Crépeau is Canada's goalkeeper

Canada has finished 2 games with a clean sheet this season

Yassine Bounou is Morocco's goalkeeper

Morocco has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place at NRG Stadium on artificial turf

Canada has a record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss with 8:2 goals on artificial turf

Morocco has a record of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses with 8:3 goals on artificial turf

The stadium saw an average of 3.2 goals per game in recent matches

In 3 out of 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games

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