World Cup
Argentina - Egypt
07/07/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.3
0.7
1:0
14%1:1
13%2:0
12%0:0
12%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Argentina
Egypt
The Lab
- 1Argentina: first goal in 8 of 8 games (100%)
- 2Egypt: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 3Egypt with Ramy Rabia: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
29%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis identifies Argentina as the clear favorite with a 54% win probability, while Egypt is only given 17%
- Egypt's offense is severely limited, with only 30% of their usual goal production available according to data
- Argentina is in top form with 5 consecutive wins and demonstrates ball-dominant play with an average of 6.4 shots on target per game
Risk Factors
- Limited data available regarding head-to-head matches between the teams
- Mohamed Salah (Egypt) shows a declining form trend in recent matches
Overview
Argentina (1st place, 9 points) faces Egypt (2nd place, 5 points) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in the World Cup
The match takes place on July 7, 2026, 6:00 PM
Both teams are fighting for progression in the knockout stage
Form
Argentina's current form shows a flawless record with 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses (Form: WWWWW)
The team has won its last five matches, most recently a 3-2 victory against Cape Verde Islands
Egypt, on the other hand, recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games (Form: LDWDD)
The team drew their last two matches, including a 1-1 against Australia
Statistics
Argentina averages 1.72 goals scored per game and concedes 0.56 goals
The team kept 11 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 5 matches
In home games, the average is 1.67 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded
Egypt, with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.2 goals conceded per game, shows strong offense and very stable defense
They achieved 8 clean sheets, and both teams scored in only 2 matches
Away, they also score 2.0 goals and concede only 0.25 goals
At Mercedes-Benz Stadium, an average of 3.8 goals per game were scored, with both teams scoring in 80% of matches and 80% of games ending with over 2.5 goals
Key Players
Key players for Argentina include Lionel Messi, an attacker with 7 season goals and an average rating of 8.96, whose form has recently been declining
Lisandro MartĂnez in defense scored 1 goal and 1 assist with a rating of 7.64, also showing declining form
Enzo FernĂĄndez in midfield has a rating of 7.20 with stable form
For Egypt, Mohamed Salah stands out as an attacker with 1 season goal, 2 assists, and a rating of 7.46, with his form declining
Emam Ashour in midfield scored 2 goals and has a rating of 7.20 with stable form
Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf, an attacker, has 1 goal and 1 assist with a rating of 7.02, and his form is stable
Goalkeepers
Emiliano MartĂnez is Argentina's goalkeeper with a season rating of 6.58
His team has achieved 11 clean sheets this season
Oufa Shobeir is Egypt's goalkeeper with a season rating of 7.26
His team has achieved 8 clean sheets
Influences
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which features artificial turf, has seen an average of 3.8 goals per game across 5 matches
Both teams scored in 80% of matches, and 80% of games ended with over 2.5 goals
Argentina has a strong record on artificial turf with 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, scoring 5 goals and conceding 1
Egypt has a more balanced record on artificial turf with 1 win, 3 draws, and 0 losses, scoring 6 goals and conceding 4