World Cup
Portugal - Spain
07/06/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.4
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
11%0:1
10%1:0
9%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
Portugal
Spain
The Lab
- 1Spain: first goal in 6 of 6 games (100%)
- 2Spain with Ălex Baena: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 3Portugal: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- 4Portugal with Bernardo Silva  : 2.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
31%
Away Win
37%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
63%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis identifies Spain as a slight favorite with a 37% win probability, compared to Portugal's 32%
- Spain's defense is outstanding, conceding an average of 0.33 goals per game this season and keeping a clean sheet in all four away matches
- Spain is in strong form with 4 wins from their last 5 games and dominant tactical metrics of 67% possession and 5.6 shots on target on average
Risk Factors
- Portugal, according to the advanced statistics description, shows a negative trend in goal production (currently 2.3 goals compared to a season average of 2.6)
Overview
Portugal faces Spain at the AT&T Stadium in a highly anticipated World Cup match on July 6, 2026, 8:00 PM
Portugal finished the group stage in 2nd place with 5 points
Spain secured 1st place with 7 points and an undefeated record
Form
Portugal's form in the last 5 matches is WDWDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
They recorded 3 wins and 2 draws
In their last match, they defeated Croatia 2-1
Spain's form in the last 5 encounters is WDWWW
They achieved 4 wins and 1 draw
Their most recent result was a 3-0 victory against Austria
Statistics
Portugal averages 3.33 goals per game and concedes 1.17 goals per game this season
In home games, Portugal scores an average of 3.0 goals and concedes 0.75 goals
Spain shows an impressive offense with an average of 3.5 goals per game and a very strong defense with only 0.33 goals conceded on average
In away games, Spain has scored an average of 3.25 goals and conceded no goals
The stadium records an average of 2.6 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 80% of matches, while over 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of matches
Head-to-Head
In 2 head-to-head matches between Portugal and Spain, there has been 1 draw and 1 win for Spain
Spain scored a total of 4 goals, while Portugal scored 3 goals
The last encounter ended in a 3-3 draw on June 15, 2018
Spain has been dominant in recent head-to-head clashes
Key Players
For Portugal, Cristiano Ronaldo is a key player with 2 season goals and an average rating of 7.56
In the last 5 games, he scored 3 goals, but his form shows a declining trend
Bruno Fernandes contributed with 1 season assist and an average rating of 7.61
His recent form indicates a declining trend
Nuno Mendes, a defender, scored 1 season goal and has a rating of 7.53, but his form is also declining
For Spain, Mikel Oyarzabal stands out with 4 season goals and 1 assist, along with an average rating of 7.97
In the last 5 games, he scored 5 times and provided 1 assist, however, his form is declining
Pedro Porro, a defender, scored 1 season goal and 1 assist with a very high average rating of 8.38
His form is stable
Ălex Baena has shown 1 season goal and 1 assist, with an average rating of 7.32
His form is stable
Goalkeepers
Diogo Costa, Portugal's goalkeeper, has a season average rating of 7.75
Portugal recorded 2 clean sheets this season
Unai SimĂłn, Spain's goalkeeper, has a season average rating of 7.01
Spain managed to keep 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf
Portugal has a record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses with 8:1 goals on artificial turf
Spain shows an impressive record of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses with 8:0 goals on artificial turf
The AT&T Stadium averages 2.6 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 80% of games at this stadium