World Cup

Mexico - England

07/06/2026, 01:00 AM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Mexico
1.1
Total xG
2.3
England
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

10%

1:0

10%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
MEXENG

Mexico

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.85
Attack strength (1.21x league average)
-0.77
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.27
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap)
-0.13

England

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.33
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap)
+0.05
Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.01

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.43
+0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mexico: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    England: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    England with Harry Kane: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Mexico with Gilberto Mora: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    England: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

32%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Predicted Balance: The mathematical analysis sees a home win at 34% and an away win at 34%
  • England's Defensive Strength: The team conceded an average of 0.00 goals this season and achieved 8 clean sheets
  • Mexico's Winning Streak: Mexico enters the match with 5 consecutive wins
Risk Factors
  • Limited data available for head-to-head matches
  • The model predicts only a 48% chance of both teams scoring
  • The model forecasts a low 40% probability for over 2.5 goals
Overview

Mexico (1st place, 9 points) faces England (1st place, 7 points) at Estadio Banorte

This is a crucial World Cup knockout match on July 6, 2026, 1:00 AM

Both teams showed strong performances in the group stage

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Mexico enters this match with a perfect form of 5 wins (WWWWW)

England showed a form of 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches (WWDWW)

Statistics

Mexico averages 1.88 goals scored per game and concedes only 0.25 goals per game

England impresses with an average of 2.75 goals scored and has conceded no goals (0.00)

Mexico recorded 6 clean sheets this season, while England achieved an impressive 8 clean sheets

At Estadio Banorte, an average of 2.2 goals per game were scored

Both teams scored in 1 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head data is available for Mexico and England

Key Players

For Mexico, Juliån Quiñones stands out with 3 goals and 1 assist in 4 season appearances

Roberto Alvarado showed his playmaking abilities with 3 assists in 4 season appearances

RaĂșl JimĂ©nez scored 2 goals in 3 season appearances

For England, Harry Kane is a key player with 5 goals in 4 season appearances

Jude Bellingham contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 season appearances

Anthony Gordon registered 2 assists in 3 season appearances and recently showed a rising form trend

Goalkeepers

RaĂșl Rangel is the goalkeeper for Mexico and kept 6 clean sheets

Jordan Pickford is in goal for England and achieved an impressive 8 clean sheets

Influences

Mexico showed strength at home, averaging 1.86 home goals scored and 0.29 goals conceded

England proved to be extremely stable away from home, with 2.60 goals scored and 0.00 goals conceded

Estadio Banorte recorded an average of 2.2 total goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.