Match report →
Norway – England1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Norway
1.06
Total xG
2.41
England
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Norway | England |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.72 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.45 | |
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | −0.44 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Attack strength (1.35x league average) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- England is currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than their season average (2.3)
- England currently has only 50% of its seasonal goal production available according to the dataset
- England averaged 16.0 total shots and 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Norway's goal production is currently stalling (2.4) compared to their season average (3.1)
- Limited data regarding head-to-head matches and missing weather data
All probabilities
Result
Norway28%
Draw31%
England42%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Norway or draw58%
England or draw72%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
0:1
10%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Norway: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- England: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Norway with Torbjørn Heggem: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- England with Bukayo Saka: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Norway: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Norway 4-3-3 · England 4-2-3-1
Norway
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 3 K. Vassbakk Ajer
- 17 T. Heggem
- 5 D. Wolfe
- 10 M. Ødegaard
- 8 S. Berge
- 6 P. Berg
- 7 A. Sørloth
- 9 E. Haaland
- 21 A. Schjelderup
England
- 1 J. Pickford
- 2 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 5 J. Stones
- 6 M. Guehi
- 3 N. O'Reilly
- 4 D. Rice
- 8 E. Anderson
- 20 C. Madueke
- 10 J. Bellingham
- 18 A. Gordon
- 9 H. Kane
Substitutes
- 20 A. Nordby Nusa
- 11 J. Strand Larsen
- 24 S. Langås
- 13 E. Selvik
- 22 O. Bobb
- 14 F. Aursnes
- 23 J. Hauge
- 15 F. Bjørkan
- 19 T. Aasgaard
- 12 S. Tangvik
- 25 H. Falchener
- 4 L. Skiri Oestigaard
- 2 M. Thorsby
- 16 M. Pedersen
- 18 K. Thorstvedt
- 11 M. Rashford
- 16 K. Mainoo
- 14 J. Henderson
- 17 M. Rogers
- 19 O. Watkins
- 13 D. Henderson
- 21 E. Eze
- 7 B. Saka
- 15 D. Burn
- 23 J. Trafford
- 24 R. James
- 12 T. Chalobah
- 25 D. Spence
- 22 I. Toney
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