World Cup

Norway - England

07/11/2026, 09:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Norway
1.1
Total xG
2.4
England
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

10%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
NORENG

Norway

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.45
Attack strength (1.4x league average)
-0.44
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.13

England

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.72
Attack strength (1.35x league average)
-0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.10
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Norway: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    England: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Norway with Torbjørn Heggem: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    England with Bukayo Saka: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Norway: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

31%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • England is currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than their season average (2.3)
  • England currently has only 50% of its seasonal goal production available according to the dataset
  • England averaged 16.0 total shots and 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Norway's goal production is currently stalling (2.4) compared to their season average (3.1)
  • Limited data regarding head-to-head matches and missing weather data
Overview

Norway faces England at the Hard Rock Stadium

World Cup match on July 11, 2026, 10:00 PM

England leads the table with 7 points

Norway follows closely with 6 points

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 28%

Form

Norway shows a form of WWLWW

4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

England enters with a form of WDWWW

4 wins and 1 draw keep the Three Lions unbeaten

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Norway averages 4.63 goals scored per match this season

The team concedes only 0.63 goals per game on average

England averages 2.75 goals scored per match

England's defense has not conceded a single goal all season

Key Players

Erling Haaland scored 7 goals in 4 season appearances

Martin Ødegaard has contributed 3 assists with a 7.12 rating

Harry Kane scored 6 goals in 5 season appearances for England

Jude Bellingham stands at 4 goals with a 7.81 rating

Goalkeepers

Ørjan Nyland played 4 international matches with an average rating of 7.01

Jordan Pickford played 5 matches and recorded 8 clean sheets for England

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Hard Rock Stadium

The venue averages 2.8 goals per game

In 60% of the matches both teams scored at this venue

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