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Argentina – Switzerland3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Argentina
1.11
Total xG
2.09
Switzerland
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Argentina | Switzerland |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.62 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.59 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | −0.40 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Lautaro Martínez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rubén Vargas on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 62% available) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: Argentina averaged 6.4 shots on target and 61% possession in recent matches
- Perfect form: Argentina enters the tournament match with a streak of 5 consecutive wins
- Statistical advantage: The mathematical model predicts a home win with a 36% probability
Risks
- Rubén Vargas is missing, only 63% of the goal threat is available
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
- Balanced outlook with a calculated draw probability of 34%
All probabilities
Result
Argentina36%
Draw33%
Switzerland30%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Double chance
Argentina or draw70%
Switzerland or draw64%
No draw67%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
12%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Argentina: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- Switzerland: first goal in 6 of 6 games (100%)
- Switzerland with Johan Manzambi: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Argentina: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Argentina: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Egypt: 2 goals (83', 90+2')
Lineups
Argentina 4-1-3-2 · Switzerland 4-2-3-1
Argentina
- 23 D. Martínez
- 26 N. Molina Lucero
- 13 C. Romero
- 6 L. Martínez
- 3 N. Alejandro Tagliafico
- 5 L. Paredes
- 7 R. de Paul
- 24 E. Fernández
- 20 A. Mac Allister
- 10 L. Messi
- 9 J. Álvarez
Switzerland
- 1 G. Kobel
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 4 N. Elvedi
- 5 M. Akanji
- 13 R. Rodríguez Araya
- 8 R. Freuler
- 10 G. Xhaka
- 15 D. Sow
- 22 F. Rieder
- 11 D. Ndoye
- 7 B. Embolo
Substitutes
- 14 E. Palacios
- 17 G. Simeone
- 1 J. Musso
- 15 N. González
- 16 T. Almada
- 25 F. Medina
- 12 G. Rulli
- 11 G. Lo Celso
- 8 V. Barco
- 2 M. Senesi
- 19 N. Otamendi
- 22 L. Martínez
- 18 N. Paz Martínez
- 21 J. López
- 4 G. Montiel
- 2 M. Muheim
- 24 A. Amenda
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 21 M. Keller
- 25 L. Jaquez
- 3 S. Widmer
- 12 Y. Mvogo
- 17 R. Vargas
- 18 E. Cömert
- 19 N. Okafor
- 23 M. Amdouni
- 14 A. Jasari
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 26 C. Itten
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