World Cup

Argentina - Switzerland

07/12/2026, 01:00 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Argentina
1.1
Total xG
2.1
Switzerland
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

12%

0:1

10%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
ARGSWI

Argentina

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.62
Attack strength (1.23x league average)
-0.40
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
Lautaro MartĂ­nez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Switzerland

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.59
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Rubén Vargas on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 62% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Argentina: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Switzerland: first goal in 6 of 6 games (100%)

  • 3
    Switzerland with Johan Manzambi: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Argentina: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 5
    Argentina: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Egypt: 2 goals (83', 90+2')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

33%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: Argentina averaged 6.4 shots on target and 61% possession in recent matches
  • Perfect form: Argentina enters the tournament match with a streak of 5 consecutive wins
  • Statistical advantage: The mathematical model predicts a home win with a 36% probability
Risk Factors
  • RubĂ©n Vargas is missing, only 63% of the goal threat is available
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
  • Balanced outlook with a calculated draw probability of 34%
Overview

Argentina faces Switzerland in the World Cup at Arrowhead Stadium

The match is scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 1:00 AM

Argentina enters this clash with a perfect record

Form

Argentina is in excellent shape with form WWWWW

The home team recorded 5 consecutive wins

Switzerland shows form DWWWD

Recently Switzerland had 3 wins and 2 draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Argentina scored avg. 1.72 goals per game this season

The defense is highly stable with only avg. 0.56 goals conceded

Switzerland scores an average of 2.33 goals per match

Defensively Switzerland conceded an average of only 0.33 goals

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams

Argentina won this single match 1-0

The match took place on July 1, 2014

Key Players

Argentina relies on Lionel Messi with 8 goals and 1 assist with an 8.98 rating

Lisandro MartĂ­nez also contributes with 1 goal and 1 assist while Enzo FernĂĄndez scored 1 goal

For Switzerland Breel Embolo leads the team with 2 goals and 2 assists

Granit Xhaka contributed 1 goal and Dan Ndoye holds a rating of 7.12

Goalkeepers

Emiliano MartĂ­nez plays in goal for Argentina with a rating of 6.46

Gregor Kobel guards the Switzerland goal with a rating of 7.19

Argentina recorded 11 clean sheets this season

Switzerland kept a clean sheet in 4 matches

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Arrowhead Stadium

Historically this stadium averages 2.8 goals per game

Argentina is strong at home with 20 goals scored and only 4 conceded in 12 home games

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