World Cup

France - Morocco

07/09/2026, 08:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
France
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Morocco
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

13%

0:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
FRAMOR

France

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.69
Attack strength (1.51x league average)
-0.29
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Bradley Barcola on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Morocco

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.67
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
+0.13
Ismael Saibari on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    France: first goal in 8 of 8 games (100%)

  • 2
    France: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Morocco: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    France: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 5
    Morocco: 47% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 15)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

33%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 42% win probability for France
  • France shows a perfect current form with 5 consecutive wins
  • The French offense consistently scores with an average of 2.7 goals per game
Overview

France (1st place, 9 points) host Morocco (2nd place, 7 points) at Gillette Stadium. World Cup match on July 9, 2026, 9:00 PM. This fixture promises to be a high-class encounter between two strong national teams.

Form

France presents itself in immaculate condition with the form WWWWW

In the last 5 games, the team recorded 5 wins and 0 draws

Morocco is also in good form with the form DWWDW

The visitors achieved 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

France shows strong offensive power with an average of 2.67 goals per game this season

The French defense concedes an average of 0.67 goals per match

Morocco impresses with a robust defense, conceding only 0.25 goals on average

Offensively, Morocco scores an average of 2.75 goals per game

At Gillette Stadium, an average of 2.6 goals per game were scored recently

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and 2 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these national teams so far

France won this encounter

The last meeting on December 14, 2022, ended with a 2-0 victory for France

Key Players

For France, Kylian Mbappé with 7 goals and 2 assists, as well as Michael Olise with 6 assists, are crucial

Ousmane Dembélé contributed 4 goals and 2 assists

Not nominated for France is Bradley Barcola (2G/1A)

For Morocco, Azzedine Ounahi stands out with 2 goals

Achraf Hakimi scored 1 goal and 2 assists

Brahim DĂ­az provided 4 assists

Not nominated for Morocco is Ismael Saibari (3G/0A)

Goalkeepers

France's goalkeeper Mike Maignan played in 5 games this season

Morocco's goalkeeper Yassine Bounou also played 5 games this season

France recorded 3 clean sheets, Morocco an impressive 6 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at Gillette Stadium

France has a perfect record on artificial turf with 4 wins out of 4 games (12:3 goals)

Morocco is also very successful on this surface with 4 wins and 1 draw out of 5 games (11:3 goals)

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