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World Cup07/09/2026, 08:00 PM

France – Morocco2 : 0

Why the model thinks so

France
1.23
Total xG
2.14
Morocco
0.91
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorFranceMorocco
Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)−0.69
Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)−0.67
Attack strength (1.51x league average)−0.29
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)+0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches−0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)+0.13
Bradley Barcola on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Ismael Saibari on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

Key factors

  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 42% win probability for France
  • France shows a perfect current form with 5 consecutive wins
  • The French offense consistently scores with an average of 2.7 goals per game

Risks

    All probabilities

    Result
    France42%
    Draw33%
    Morocco26%
    Goals
    Over 1.565%
    Under 1.535%
    Over 2.536%
    Under 2.564%
    Over 3.517%
    Under 3.583%
    Double chance
    France or draw74%
    Morocco or draw58%
    No draw67%
    Both teams score
    Yes44%
    No56%

    Most likely scores

    1:1
    15%
    0:0
    13%
    1:0
    13%
    0:1
    9%
    2:0
    9%

    The Lab

    Patterns our system found in the data.

    1. France: first goal in 8 of 8 games (100%)
    2. France: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
    3. Morocco: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
    4. France: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
    5. Morocco: 47% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 15)

    Lineups

    France 4-2-3-1 · Morocco 4-2-3-1

    France
    • 16 M. Maignan
    • 5 J. Koundé
    • 4 D. Upamecano
    • 17 W. Saliba
    • 3 L. Digne
    • 6 K. Kone
    • 14 A. Rabiot
    • 7 O. Dembélé
    • 11 M. Olise
    • 20 D. Doue
    • 10 K. Mbappé
    Morocco
    • 1 Y. Bounou
    • 2 A. Hakimi Mouh
    • 14 I. Diop
    • 3 N. Mazraoui
    • 26 A. Salah-Eddine
    • 6 A. Bouaddi
    • 24 N. El Aynaoui
    • 10 B. Abdelkader Diaz
    • 8 A. Ounahi
    • 7 C. Talbi
    • 23 B. El Khannous
    Substitutes
    • 1 B. Samba
    • 23 R. Risser
    • 8 A. Tchouaméni
    • 25 M. Akliouche
    • 21 L. Hernández Pi
    • 12 B. Barcola
    • 18 W. Zaire Emery
    • 26 M. Lacroix
    • 22 J. Mateta
    • 15 I. Konaté
    • 24 M. Cherki
    • 2 M. Gusto
    • 9 M. Thuram
    • 13 N. Kanté
    • 19 T. Hernández
    • 21 A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab
    • 17 M. Sbai
    • 4 S. Amrabat
    • 15 S. El Mourabet
    • 18 C. Riad
    • 11 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
    • 20 A. El Kaabi
    • 13 Z. El Ouahdi
    • 16 G. Yassine
    • 5 M. Saadane
    • 25 R. Halhal
    • 9 S. Rahimi
    • 19 Y. Belammari
    • 12 M. Mohand Mohamedi
    • 22 A. Tagnaouti

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