World Cup

Spain - Belgium

07/10/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Spain
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Belgium
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SPABEL

Spain

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.69
Attack strength (1.46x league average)
-0.18
5 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.07

Belgium

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.56
Attack strength (1.36x league average)
-0.43
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.21
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Spain: first goal in 6 of 6 games (100%)

  • 2
    Spain with Álex Baena: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Belgium with Charles De Ketelaere: 3.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Belgium: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Senegal: 3 goals (86', 89', 120+5')

  • 5
    Belgium: 38% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 21)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

31%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: Spain averaged 65% possession and 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Historical superiority: Spain won all 4 historical duels against Belgium with an aggregate score of 11-1
  • Squad restriction: Only 41% of Belgium's goal production is active and available for this match
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Belgium have only 3 days of rest compared to Spain's 4 days of recovery
  • Attack slowdown: Spain's goal production has slowed down to 2.3 goals compared to their season average of 2.9
  • Belgian dip: Belgium's goalscoring has decreased to 3.3 goals recently against a season average of 3.7
Overview

Spain face Belgium at SoFi Stadium

World Cup match on July 10, 2026, 8:00 PM

Both teams lead their groups with 7 and 5 points respectively

A high-stakes knockout clash is ahead

Form

Spain are in stable shape with a DWWWW form run

Four consecutive wins recently, including a 1-0 victory against Portugal

Belgium enter with a DDWWW form trend

The Red Devils won their last three games, including a 4-1 win over the United States

Spain have 4 wins and 1 draw, while Belgium have 3 wins and 2 draws (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Spain score an average of 3.5 goals and concede only 0.33 goals per game

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 5 out of 6 games for Spain

Belgium score 3.63 goals on average while conceding 0.88 goals per match

Spain recorded 5 clean sheets so far this season

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in history

Spain won all 4 encounters with an aggregate goal difference of 11-1

The last direct duel ended in a 5-0 win for Spain

Key Players

Mikel Oyarzabal scored 4 goals in 5 appearances with a rating of 7.7

Pedro Porro impresses as defender with a 7.96 rating and 1 goal

Rodri commands the midfield with a solid 7.62 rating

Leandro Trossard stands out for Belgium with 2 goals and 3 assists with a 7.66 rating

Youri Tielemans contributed 2 goals with a rating of 7.55

Kevin De Bruyne recorded 1 goal and a season rating of 7.44

Goalkeepers

Unai SimĂłn has 5 clean sheets and an average rating of 7.03

Thibaut Courtois recorded 4 clean sheets with a rating of 6.79

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf at SoFi Stadium

Spain's record on artificial turf is 4 wins and 1 draw with 9-0 goals

Belgium's record on this surface is 4 wins and 3 draws with 19-8 goals

The stadium average stands at 2.8 goals per match

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