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Spain – Belgium2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Spain
1.31
Total xG
2.38
Belgium
1.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Spain | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.69 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.56 | |
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | −0.43 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | −0.18 | |
| 5 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: Spain averaged 65% possession and 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Historical superiority: Spain won all 4 historical duels against Belgium with an aggregate score of 11-1
- Squad restriction: Only 41% of Belgium's goal production is active and available for this match
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Belgium have only 3 days of rest compared to Spain's 4 days of recovery
- Attack slowdown: Spain's goal production has slowed down to 2.3 goals compared to their season average of 2.9
- Belgian dip: Belgium's goalscoring has decreased to 3.3 goals recently against a season average of 3.7
All probabilities
Result
Spain40%
Draw31%
Belgium29%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Spain or draw71%
Belgium or draw60%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
2:1
9%
0:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Spain: first goal in 6 of 6 games (100%)
- Spain with Álex Baena: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Belgium with Charles De Ketelaere: 3.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Belgium: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Senegal: 3 goals (86', 89', 120+5')
- Belgium: 38% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 21)
Lineups
Spain 4-2-3-1 · Belgium 4-2-3-1
Spain
- 23 U. Simón Mendibil
- 12 P. Porro Sauceda
- 22 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 14 A. Laporte
- 24 M. Cucurella
- 16 Rodri
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 19 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 10 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 15 A. Rodríguez
- 21 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Belgium
- 1 T. Courtois
- 21 T. Castagne
- 25 N. Ngoy
- 4 B. Mechele
- 5 M. De Cuyper
- 20 H. Vanaken
- 23 N. Raskin
- 10 L. Trossard
- 7 K. De Bruyne
- 11 J. Doku
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
Substitutes
- 3 A. Grimaldo García
- 7 F. Torres García
- 4 E. García
- 9 Pablo Gaviria
- 20 P. López
- 13 J. Pons
- 5 M. Llorente Moreno
- 2 M. Pubill Pagès
- 17 N. Williams Arthuer
- 26 B. Iglesias Quintas
- 25 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 11 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 18 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 6 M. Merino Zazón
- 3 A. Theate
- 6 A. Witsel
- 26 M. Fernandez Pardo
- 15 T. Meunier
- 19 D. da Silva Moreira
- 13 M. Penders
- 12 S. Lammens
- 8 Y. Tielemans
- 14 D. Lukebakio
- 18 J. Seys
- 9 R. Lukaku Menama
- 22 A. Saelemaekers
- 16 K. De Winter
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