World Cup

England - Argentina

07/15/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
England
1.1
Total xG
2.1
Argentina
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

11%

0:1

10%

2:1

7%
What influences the xG?
ENGARG

England

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.69
Attack strength (1.33x league average)
-0.41
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.02
Full strength squad available

Argentina

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.66
Attack strength (1.27x league average)
-0.50
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.30
Lautaro MartĂ­nez on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Argentina: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    England: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Argentina: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 4
    England: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 5
    Argentina: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Switzerland: 2 goals (112', 120+1')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

33%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Tactical output: England recently averaged 5.8 shots on target, compared to Argentina's average of 6.6 shots on target
  • Perfect defensive season: England conceded 0.00 goals on average in 8 matches this season
  • Strong turf records: Argentina won all 3 matches on artificial turf, while England is unbeaten with 3 wins and 1 draw
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery: Argentina has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Squad restriction: Only 59% of England's goal-scoring threat is available in the current squad
  • Missing defensive depth: J. Quansah is suspended for England due to a red card
Overview

England faces Argentina at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium

World Cup fixture on July 15, 2026, 9:00 PM

The mathematical model estimates a home win probability of 36%

Form

England displays stable form with DWWWW in their last five matches

Their last game resulted in a 2-1 win against Norway

Argentina enters in perfect shape with a WWWWW run

They recently defeated Switzerland 3-1

Statistics

England has a perfect defensive record with 0 goals conceded in 8 games

The hosts score an average of 2.75 goals per match

Argentina averages 1.72 goals scored and 0.56 conceded

The visitors have kept 11 clean sheets this season

Key Players

Harry Kane has scored 6 goals and provided 1 assist this season

Jude Bellingham stands out with an average rating of 7.97

Lionel Messi leads Argentina with 8 goals and 2 assists

Not selected: Lautaro MartĂ­nez (2 goals, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Jordan Pickford played 6 games for England with a 6.71 average rating

Emiliano MartĂ­nez has 6 appearances for Argentina this season

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

England is unbeaten on this surface with 3 wins and 1 draw

Argentina has a perfect record of 3 wins on artificial turf

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