Match report →
England – Argentina1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
England
1.11
Total xG
2.13
Argentina
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | England | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.69 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.66 | |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | −0.50 | |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | −0.41 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.30 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Lautaro Martínez on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical output: England recently averaged 5.8 shots on target, compared to Argentina's average of 6.6 shots on target
- Perfect defensive season: England conceded 0.00 goals on average in 8 matches this season
- Strong turf records: Argentina won all 3 matches on artificial turf, while England is unbeaten with 3 wins and 1 draw
Risks
- Short recovery: Argentina has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Squad restriction: Only 59% of England's goal-scoring threat is available in the current squad
- Missing defensive depth: J. Quansah is suspended for England due to a red card
All probabilities
Result
England36%
Draw33%
Argentina31%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Double chance
England or draw69%
Argentina or draw64%
No draw67%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
11%
0:1
10%
2:1
7%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Argentina: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- England: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Argentina: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- England: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Argentina: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Switzerland: 2 goals (112', 120+1')
Lineups
England 4-2-3-1 · Argentina 4-1-4-1
England
- 1 J. Pickford
- 24 R. James
- 5 J. Stones
- 6 M. Guehi
- 25 D. Spence
- 4 D. Rice
- 8 E. Anderson
- 17 M. Rogers
- 10 J. Bellingham
- 18 A. Gordon
- 9 H. Kane
Argentina
- 23 D. Martínez
- 26 N. Molina Lucero
- 13 C. Romero
- 6 L. Martínez
- 3 N. Alejandro Tagliafico
- 5 L. Paredes
- 17 G. Simeone
- 24 E. Fernández
- 20 A. Mac Allister
- 9 J. Álvarez
- 10 L. Messi
Substitutes
- 11 M. Rashford
- 16 K. Mainoo
- 14 J. Henderson
- 2 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 19 O. Watkins
- 13 D. Henderson
- 20 C. Madueke
- 21 E. Eze
- 7 B. Saka
- 15 D. Burn
- 23 J. Trafford
- 3 N. O'Reilly
- 12 T. Chalobah
- 22 I. Toney
- 14 E. Palacios
- 1 J. Musso
- 15 N. González
- 16 T. Almada
- 7 R. de Paul
- 25 F. Medina
- 12 G. Rulli
- 11 G. Lo Celso
- 8 V. Barco
- 2 M. Senesi
- 19 N. Otamendi
- 22 L. Martínez
- 18 N. Paz Martínez
- 21 J. López
- 4 G. Montiel
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →