Match report →
France – Spain0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
France
1.21
Total xG
2.36
Spain
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | France | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.69 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.69 | |
| Attack strength (1.48x league average) | −0.35 | |
| Attack strength (1.55x league average) | −0.30 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.04 |
Key factors
- Perfect form: Both teams enter this crucial match with a flawless run of 5 consecutive wins (WWWWW)
- Tactical dominance: France recently controlled an average of 60% possession and 7.8 shots on target, while Spain averaged 64% possession and 6.6 shots on target
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical model expects an incredibly close contest, predicting a 36% chance for a France win and 33% for a Spain win
Risks
- Stalling Spanish attack: According to advanced stats, Spain's recent goal average of 2.2 is currently below their season average of 2.8
- Artificial turf surface: The match will be played on artificial turf, which can alter the usual flow of the game despite both teams having strong records on this surface
All probabilities
Result
France35%
Draw31%
Spain33%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Double chance
France or draw67%
Spain or draw65%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- France: first goal in 8 of 8 games (100%)
- Spain: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)
- France: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- France: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Spain with Pedro Porro: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
France 4-2-3-1 · Spain 4-2-3-1
France
- 16 M. Maignan
- 5 J. Koundé
- 4 D. Upamecano
- 17 W. Saliba
- 3 L. Digne
- 8 A. Tchouaméni
- 14 A. Rabiot
- 7 O. Dembélé
- 11 M. Olise
- 12 B. Barcola
- 10 K. Mbappé
Spain
- 23 U. Simón Mendibil
- 12 P. Porro Sauceda
- 22 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 14 A. Laporte
- 24 M. Cucurella
- 16 Rodri
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 19 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 10 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 15 A. Rodríguez
- 21 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Substitutes
- 1 B. Samba
- 23 R. Risser
- 25 M. Akliouche
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 20 D. Doue
- 18 W. Zaire Emery
- 26 M. Lacroix
- 22 J. Mateta
- 15 I. Konaté
- 24 M. Cherki
- 2 M. Gusto
- 9 M. Thuram
- 6 K. Kone
- 13 N. Kanté
- 19 T. Hernández
- 3 A. Grimaldo García
- 7 F. Torres García
- 4 E. García
- 9 Pablo Gaviria
- 20 P. López
- 13 J. Pons
- 5 M. Llorente Moreno
- 2 M. Pubill Pagès
- 17 N. Williams Arthuer
- 26 B. Iglesias Quintas
- 25 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 11 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 18 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 6 M. Merino Zazón
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →