World Cup

France - Spain

07/14/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
France
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Spain
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
FRASPA

France

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.69
Attack strength (1.55x league average)
-0.30
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.13

Spain

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.69
Attack strength (1.48x league average)
-0.35
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.04
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    France: first goal in 8 of 8 games (100%)

  • 2
    Spain: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)

  • 3
    France: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    France: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 5
    Spain with Pedro Porro: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

31%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Perfect form: Both teams enter this crucial match with a flawless run of 5 consecutive wins (WWWWW)
  • Tactical dominance: France recently controlled an average of 60% possession and 7.8 shots on target, while Spain averaged 64% possession and 6.6 shots on target
  • Balanced prediction: The mathematical model expects an incredibly close contest, predicting a 36% chance for a France win and 33% for a Spain win
Risk Factors
  • Stalling Spanish attack: According to advanced stats, Spain's recent goal average of 2.2 is currently below their season average of 2.8
  • Artificial turf surface: The match will be played on artificial turf, which can alter the usual flow of the game despite both teams having strong records on this surface
Overview

France faces Spain in the World Cup

The match takes place on July 14, 2026, 7:00 PM at the AT&T Stadium

France leads the group with 9 points, while Spain has 7 points

A high-class clash at the absolute top level is ahead

Form

Both teams are in outstanding shape

France has a flawless form of WWWWW with 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses

Spain counters with an equally perfect record of WWWWW (5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Spain averages an impressive 3.5 goals per game this season, while France stands at 2.67

Both defenses are extremely solid, conceding an average of only 0.33 goals

France has kept 4 clean sheets so far, while Spain has recorded 5

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 head-to-head matches between these nations

The record is completely balanced with one win for each team and one draw

The last encounter ended 1-0 in favor of Spain on March 26, 2013

Key Players

For France, Kylian Mbappé shines with 8 goals and 3 assists this season

Ousmane Dembélé contributed 5 goals and 2 assists

Michael Olise has already provided 6 assists

Spain relies on Mikel Oyarzabal with 4 goals and 1 assist, and Álex Baena with 1 goal and 1 assist

Marc Cucurella impresses with 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Mike Maignan is in goal for France with an average rating of 6.92

Unai SimĂłn guards Spain's goal with a rating of 6.93

France has kept 4 clean sheets this season, while Spain has managed 5

Influences

The game will be played on artificial turf at the AT&T Stadium

France is extremely successful on this surface with 5 wins in 5 matches

Spain has recorded 5 wins and 1 draw in 6 games on artificial turf

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