World Cup

France - England

07/18/2026, 09:00 PM

4 : 6
Expected Goals
France
1.2
Total xG
2.3
England
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
FRAENG

France

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.67
Attack strength (1.52x league average)
-0.32
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.04
Ousmane Dembélé on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Bradley Barcola on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
38% of goal output missing (only 70% available)

England

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.69
Attack strength (1.33x league average)
-0.42
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.04
Harry Kane on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Jude Bellingham on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Anthony Gordon on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
92% of goal output missing (only 29% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    France: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    England: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    France: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 4
    France: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    England: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

32%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Severe quality loss for England as only 30% of the usual attacking threat is active without Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Anthony Gordon
  • France averaged 58.4% possession and 7.2 shots on target in recent matches to dominate their opponents
  • Mathematical predictions slightly favor France with a 37% win probability
Risk Factors
  • Weakened French attack since only 70% of the typical starting attacking threat is active with Ousmane DembĂ©lĂ© and Bradley Barcola missing
  • England has to cope with a tight schedule having only 3 days of rest since their last match
Overview

France faces England in the World Cup

This prestigious match takes place at the Hard Rock Stadium

Kick-off is scheduled for July 18, 2026, 11:00 PM

Both teams lead their respective standings with strong performances

Form

France holds a form record of WWWWL and recently suffered a 0-2 defeat against Spain

The French goal production is currently stalling at an average of 2.0 compared to their season average of 2.4

England also shows a form record of WWWWL and lost their last game 1-2 to Argentina

The English team continues to score consistently with around 2.1 goals per match

Statistics

France averages 2.29 goals scored and 0.57 goals conceded per game this season

England shines with a flawless defensive record of 0 goals conceded on average this season

The English side also scores an impressive average of 2.75 goals per match

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams

The last meeting ended in a 2-1 victory

Key Players

Kylian Mbappé is France's top threat with 8 goals and 3 assists

Michael Olise has contributed 5 assists to the French attack

Bukayo Saka has delivered 3 assists for England this season

Goalkeepers

Mike Maignan has kept 4 clean sheets for France

England's defense has recorded 8 clean sheets overall this season

Influences

The game will be played on natural grass at the Hard Rock Stadium

Matches at this venue average 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the fixtures played here

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