Match report →
France – England4 : 6
Why the model thinks so
France
1.20
Total xG
2.28
England
1.08
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | France | England |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.69 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.67 | |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | −0.42 | |
| Attack strength (1.52x league average) | −0.32 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Ousmane Dembélé on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Bradley Barcola on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 38% of goal output missing (only 70% available) | ||
| Harry Kane on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jude Bellingham on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Anthony Gordon on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 92% of goal output missing (only 29% available) |
Key factors
- Severe quality loss for England as only 30% of the usual attacking threat is active without Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Anthony Gordon
- France averaged 58.4% possession and 7.2 shots on target in recent matches to dominate their opponents
- Mathematical predictions slightly favor France with a 37% win probability
Risks
- Weakened French attack since only 70% of the typical starting attacking threat is active with Ousmane Dembélé and Bradley Barcola missing
- England has to cope with a tight schedule having only 3 days of rest since their last match
All probabilities
Result
France37%
Draw32%
England31%
Double chance
France or draw69%
England or draw63%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
4:6
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- France: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- England: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- France: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- France: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- England: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
Lineups
France 4-2-3-1 · England 4-1-4-1
France
- 16 M. Maignan
- 2 M. Gusto
- 15 I. Konaté
- 26 M. Lacroix
- 19 T. Hernández
- 18 W. Zaire Emery
- 14 A. Rabiot
- 11 M. Olise
- 24 M. Cherki
- 20 D. Doue
- 10 K. Mbappé
England
- 13 D. Henderson
- 26 J. Quansah
- 2 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 6 M. Guehi
- 25 D. Spence
- 4 D. Rice
- 7 B. Saka
- 17 M. Rogers
- 21 E. Eze
- 11 M. Rashford
- 22 I. Toney
Substitutes
- 4 D. Upamecano
- 1 B. Samba
- 23 R. Risser
- 8 A. Tchouaméni
- 5 J. Koundé
- 25 M. Akliouche
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 12 B. Barcola
- 7 O. Dembélé
- 3 L. Digne
- 22 J. Mateta
- 17 W. Saliba
- 9 M. Thuram
- 6 K. Kone
- 13 N. Kanté
- 9 H. Kane
- 10 J. Bellingham
- 16 K. Mainoo
- 14 J. Henderson
- 1 J. Pickford
- 8 E. Anderson
- 19 O. Watkins
- 20 C. Madueke
- 15 D. Burn
- 18 A. Gordon
- 23 J. Trafford
- 5 J. Stones
- 3 N. O'Reilly
- 24 R. James
- 12 T. Chalobah
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