World Cup

Spain - Argentina

07/19/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Spain
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Argentina
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SPAARG

Spain

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.70
Attack strength (1.51x league average)
-0.24
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.09

Argentina

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.63
Attack strength (1.28x league average)
-0.50
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.30
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Spain: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)

  • 2
    Argentina: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Argentina: 6 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 4
    Argentina: 11 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against England: 2 goals (86', 90+2')

  • 5
    Spain with Pedro Porro: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

32%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Both teams enter with a perfect 5-game winning streak, with Spain having a 41% win probability according to the prediction model
  • Argentina averaged 6.6 shots on target recently, compared to Spain's average of 5.4 shots on target
  • Both teams excel on artificial turf, with Spain having 6 wins and Argentina maintaining a perfect 4 wins from 4 matches
Risk Factors
  • Spain's scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 2.7
  • Argentina enters this match with a shortened recovery period of only 4 days of rest since their last game
  • The prediction model calculates a low probability of just 40% for over 2.5 total goals in the match
Overview

Spain hosts Argentina at the MetLife Stadium

World Cup match on July 19, 2026, 7:00 PM

A top-tier knockout clash is ahead

Spain enters the match as slight favorites

Form

Both teams are in exceptional form

Spain is on a 5-match winning streak (Form: WWWWW)

Argentina also travels with 5 consecutive wins (Form: WWWWW)

Form codes: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Spain has scored 21 goals and conceded only 2 this season

Argentina has recorded 31 goals scored and 10 conceded in 18 matches

MetLife Stadium averaged 3.2 total goals per match recently

Both teams possess highly resilient defensive lines

Head-to-Head

No historical head-to-head matches between these two teams are recorded in the provided dataset

There are no head-to-head statistics available for this fixture

Key Players

For Spain, Mikel Oyarzabal stands out with 5 goals in 7 season appearances

Defender Pedro Porro contributed 2 goals with a strong 7.7 average rating

For Argentina, Lionel Messi shines with 8 goals and 4 assists this season

Enzo FernĂĄndez has scored 2 goals, while Lisandro MartĂ­nez provides defensive stability

Goalkeepers

Unai SimĂłn has recorded 5 clean sheets for Spain this season

Emiliano MartĂ­nez kept a clean sheet in 11 matches for Argentina this season

Both goalkeepers perform at an elite statistical level

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Spain is strong on this surface with a record of 6 wins and 1 draw

Argentina has won all 4 of their matches on artificial turf

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