Match report →
Spain – Argentina1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Spain
1.27
Total xG
2.28
Argentina
1.01
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Spain | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.70 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.63 | |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | −0.50 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.30 | |
| Attack strength (1.51x league average) | −0.24 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.09 |
Key factors
- Both teams enter with a perfect 5-game winning streak, with Spain having a 41% win probability according to the prediction model
- Argentina averaged 6.6 shots on target recently, compared to Spain's average of 5.4 shots on target
- Both teams excel on artificial turf, with Spain having 6 wins and Argentina maintaining a perfect 4 wins from 4 matches
Risks
- Spain's scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 2.7
- Argentina enters this match with a shortened recovery period of only 4 days of rest since their last game
- The prediction model calculates a low probability of just 40% for over 2.5 total goals in the match
All probabilities
Result
Spain41%
Draw32%
Argentina28%
Double chance
Spain or draw72%
Argentina or draw59%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Spain: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)
- Argentina: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Argentina: 6 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Argentina: 11 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against England: 2 goals (86', 90+2')
- Spain with Pedro Porro: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Spain 4-2-3-1 · Argentina 4-4-2
Spain
- 23 U. Simón Mendibil
- 12 P. Porro Sauceda
- 22 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 14 A. Laporte
- 24 M. Cucurella
- 16 Rodri
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 19 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 10 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 15 A. Rodríguez
- 21 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Argentina
- 23 D. Martínez
- 4 G. Montiel
- 13 C. Romero
- 6 L. Martínez
- 3 N. Alejandro Tagliafico
- 7 R. de Paul
- 24 E. Fernández
- 20 A. Mac Allister
- 15 N. González
- 10 L. Messi
- 9 J. Álvarez
Substitutes
- 3 A. Grimaldo García
- 7 F. Torres García
- 4 E. García
- 9 Pablo Gaviria
- 20 P. López
- 13 J. Pons
- 5 M. Llorente Moreno
- 2 M. Pubill Pagès
- 17 N. Williams Arthuer
- 26 B. Iglesias Quintas
- 25 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 11 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 18 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 6 M. Merino Zazón
- 14 E. Palacios
- 17 G. Simeone
- 1 J. Musso
- 16 T. Almada
- 26 N. Molina Lucero
- 25 F. Medina
- 12 G. Rulli
- 11 G. Lo Celso
- 8 V. Barco
- 2 M. Senesi
- 19 N. Otamendi
- 22 L. Martínez
- 18 N. Paz Martínez
- 21 J. López
- 5 L. Paredes
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