La Liga
Villarreal - Valencia
02/22/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
10%0:1
9%2:1
8%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
31%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Stark home/away disparity: Villarreal's home strength (1.93 goals per game, 0.71 conceded) meets Valencia's extreme away weakness (2.4 conceded per game)
- Superior offense: With 45 season goals, Villarreal is significantly more dangerous in front of goal than Valencia (25 goals)
- League position reflects season performance: The huge gap in the table (4th vs 16th) highlights Villarreal's consistent performance compared to Valencia's struggles
Risk Factors
- Inconsistent form: Villarreal has suffered two defeats in their last five games, suggesting some inconsistency
- Balanced H2H record: Despite the last win, the historical record against Valencia is relatively balanced, showing that Valencia has been competitive in the past
- Low goal expectation from the model: The mathematical prediction anticipates a close game with only 1.25 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.14 for Valencia
Overview
Villarreal (4th place, 48 points) host Valencia (16th place, 26 points) at the Estadio de la CerĂĄmica
La Liga match on February 22, 2026, 9:00 PM
The home team is fighting for the Champions League spots, while the visitors are trying to distance themselves from the relegation zone
Form
Villarreal form: L-D-W-L-W
In the last five games, there have been 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Valencia form: W-L-L-L-W
Valencia has recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches
Both teams won their most recent game
Statistics
Villarreal shows strong offensive capabilities with an average of 1.88 goals per game, which increases to 1.93 at home
Valencia scores an average of 1.04 goals per game, dropping to 1.0 away
Defensively, Villarreal is particularly solid at home, conceding only 0.71 goals on average
Valencia is vulnerable on the road, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per away game
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Villarreal has the edge with 2 wins, compared to 1 win for Valencia and 2 draws
The goal difference is 6:5 in favor of Villarreal
Villarreal won the last meeting 2-0 away from home
Key Players
Villarreal: Alberto Moleiro (9 goals, 4 assists), Georges Mikautadze (8 goals, 4 assists), and Nicolas Pépé (3 goals, 4 assists) are the main players in attack
Valencia: Key players include Luis Rioja (2 goals, 4 assists), Filip Ugrinic (3 assists), and Umar Sadiq
Goalkeepers
Villarreal's goalkeeper Luiz JĂșnior has been involved in 8 clean sheets this season
Valencia's Stole Dimitrievski has contributed to the team's total of 6 clean sheets in his appearances
Influences
Villarreal has a clear home advantage and is very strong at the Estadio de la CerĂĄmica, averaging 1.93 goals scored versus only 0.71 conceded
Historically, matches at this stadium are high-scoring, with an average of 3.2 goals in the last five games