Match report →
Iraq – Venezuela0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Iraq
1.46
Total xG
2.93
Venezuela
1.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Iraq | Venezuela |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.78 | |
| Attack strength (1.79x league average) | +0.75 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.38 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.30 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1 season average) | +0.29 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 58 vs 49, 9 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 49 vs 58, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) | ||
| Gleiker Mendoza not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very close game, with both Iraq (36%) and Venezuela (37%) having similar chances of winning, and a draw also highly weighted at 28%
- Iraq's defensive strength this season (average 0.65 goals conceded per game) meets Venezuela's extremely vulnerable away defense (average 3.33 goals conceded per away game)
- Both teams show critical concerns regarding available offensive strength, with 0% of the usual starting XI's goal-scoring power available. For Venezuela, Gleiker Mendoza (1G/1A) is also missing
Risks
- Data availability is limited, as no historical head-to-head matches or detailed venue history are provided
- Iraq recorded an average of only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating potential difficulties in creating clear scoring opportunities
- Venezuela conceded 2 goals in their last match against Türkiye, signaling a vulnerability in recent defensive performance
All probabilities
Result
Iraq36%
Draw28%
Venezuela37%
Double chance
Iraq or draw63%
Venezuela or draw64%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Venezuela with Teo Quintero: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Iraq 4-3-3 · Venezuela 4-2-3-1
Iraq
- 12 J. Hachim
- 3 H. Ali
- 8 I. Bayesh
- 9 A. Al-Hamadi
- 6 M. Younnes
- 11 A. Qasem
- 2 R. Sulaka Adhamat
- 15 A. Hasan
- 19 K. Yakob
- 20 A. Sher
- 18 A. Hussein
Venezuela
- 1 J. Contreras Verna
- 2 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 4 J. Aramburu
- 5 T. Quintero León
- 13 L. Balbo Vieira
- 17 D. Pereira Gil
- 8 C. Cásseres Yepes
- 20 E. Echenique Peña
- 10 T. Segovia Pérez
- 7 G. Mendoza Barrios
- 9 J. Ramírez Díaz
Substitutes
- 23 M. Doski
- 7 Y. Amyn
- 14 Z. Iqbal
- 21 M. Farji
- 17 A. Al Tameemi
- 1 F. Raheem
- 5 A. Rahman
- 13 A. Hashim
- 10 M. Ali
- 25 M. Saadoun Al Korji
- 24 Z. Al Dulaimi
- 26 F. Putros
- 16 A. Al-Ammari
- 22 A. Fadhil
- 4 Z. Tahseen
- 6 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 15 J. Yriarte González
- 32 Javier Otero
- 11 D. Martínez Morales
- 19 K. Kelsy Genez
- 23 A. Covas Miranda
- 25 E. Tortolero Toro
- 12 C. Varela Caicedo
- 22 J. Graterol Nader
- 14 D. Osio Valencia
- 26 M. Libra Alvarado
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