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Venezuela – Türkiye1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Venezuela
1.96
Total xG
3.21
Türkiye
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Venezuela | Türkiye |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.82 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.50 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 49 vs 27, 22 places gap) | −0.35 | |
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | +0.28 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 27 vs 49, 22 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 62% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 53% for Venezuela
- Türkiye showed a strong offensive performance in their last game, averaging 7.0 shots on target
- Chase Stadium favors high-scoring games, averaging 5.0 goals per match with a 60% BTTS rate
Risks
- Venezuela has only 63% of the usual starting eleven's goal threat available
- Venezuela recorded an average of 3.2 shots on target in the last 5 games
- Limited data availability for xG values for Venezuela in 3 of the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Venezuela52%
Draw24%
Türkiye23%
Double chance
Venezuela or draw77%
Türkiye or draw48%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Venezuela with Nahuel Ferraresi: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (4 of 6 games)
Lineups
Venezuela 3-5-2 · Türkiye 4-2-3-1
Venezuela
- 1 J. Contreras Verna
- 4 J. Aramburu
- 2 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 24 C. Makoun Reyes
- 5 T. Quintero León
- 8 C. Cásseres Yepes
- 6 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 11 D. Martínez Morales
- 10 T. Segovia Pérez
- 7 G. Mendoza Barrios
- 9 J. Ramírez Díaz
Türkiye
- 23 U. Çakır
- 2 M. Çelik
- 15 O. Kabak
- 14 A. Bardakcı
- 13 E. Elmalı
- 16 İ. Yüksek
- 6 O. Kökçü
- 17 İ. Kahveci
- 8 A. Guler
- 21 B. Yılmaz
- 9 D. Gül
Substitutes
- 15 J. Yriarte González
- 13 L. Balbo Vieira
- 32 Javier Otero
- 17 D. Pereira Gil
- 19 K. Kelsy Genez
- 20 E. Echenique Peña
- 21 A. Covas Miranda
- 3 C. Vivas González
- 25 E. Tortolero Toro
- 12 C. Varela Caicedo
- 22 J. Graterol Nader
- 14 D. Osio Valencia
- 26 M. Libra Alvarado
- 5 S. Özcan
- 26 C. Uzun
- 12 A. Bayındır
- 22 K. Ayhan
- 19 Y. Akgün
- 10 H. Çalhanoğlu
- 18 M. Müldür
- 7 M. Aktürkoğlu
- 24 O. Aydın
- 4 C. Söyüncü
- 20 D. Tıknaz
- 11 D. Simsir
- 1 F. Günok
- 3 M. Demiral
- 25 S. Akaydin
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