Friendly International

Venezuela - Türkiye

06/06/2026, 10:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Venezuela
2.0
Total xG
3.2
Türkiye
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
VENTÜR

Venezuela

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.82
Standings disadvantage (pos 49 vs 27, 22 places gap)
-0.35
Attack strength (1.31x league average)
+0.28
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
Rising form (2.5 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.24
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.21
100% of goal output missing (only 62% available)

Türkiye

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.50
Standings advantage (pos 27 vs 49, 22 places gap)
+0.09
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.36
+0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Venezuela with Nahuel Ferraresi: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (4 of 6 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

24%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 53% for Venezuela
  • Türkiye showed a strong offensive performance in their last game, averaging 7.0 shots on target
  • Chase Stadium favors high-scoring games, averaging 5.0 goals per match with a 60% BTTS rate
Risk Factors
  • Venezuela has only 63% of the usual starting eleven's goal threat available
  • Venezuela recorded an average of 3.2 shots on target in the last 5 games
  • Limited data availability for xG values for Venezuela in 3 of the last 5 games
Overview

Venezuela host Türkiye at Chase Stadium

Friendly International match on June 6, 2026, 11:00 PM

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 53% for Venezuela and an away win probability of 23% for Türkiye

A draw is expected with 25%

The predicted goals are 1.96 for Venezuela and 1.26 for Türkiye

Form

Venezuela's form across all competitions is LWLWD

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last five matches

The last result was a draw

Türkiye shows a form of W

This is 1 win in the only recorded match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Venezuela scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 0.5 goals in two season games

Türkiye scored an average of 4.0 goals and conceded 0 goals in one season game

Chase Stadium sees an average of 5.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games (60% BTTS)

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 out of 5 games (60% Over 2.5)

Head-to-Head

No previous head-to-head matches between Venezuela and Türkiye were found in the dataset

Key Players

Jesús Ramírez scored 4 goals in the last 5 games with a rising form trend

David Martínez was successful with 2 goals and a rising form in the last 5 games

Telasco Segovia contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games, also with a rising form

Deniz Gül scored 4 times in the last 5 games

Barış Alper Yılmaz scored 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Arda Güler recorded 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rising form trend

Goalkeepers

José Contreras kept one clean sheet for Venezuela

Uğurcan Çakır of Türkiye also recorded one clean sheet

Influences

The match will be played on grass

Venezuela's home statistics show an average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded per home game

Chase Stadium has a high goal-scoring rate, with an average of 5.0 goals per game in the last five matches

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