Match report →
Czech Republic – Guatemala3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Czech Republic
1.89
Total xG
2.52
Guatemala
0.64
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Czech Republic | Guatemala |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.79 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.69 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | −0.60 | |
| Attack weakness (0.44x league average) | −0.50 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 39 vs 98, 59 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 98 vs 39, 59 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of a home win for the Czech Republic (66%)
- Guatemala's defensive vulnerabilities are significant, with an average of 4.0 goals conceded per game this season
- A critical impact on the Czech Republic's starting XI strength, with only 0% of the usual active goals share available
Risks
- Guatemala is in very poor form, with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 4 matches
- The Czech Republic faces this match with several players sidelined due to injury (M. Vitík, D. Zima, V. Jaroš, J. Kliment, V. Jemelka)
- Guatemala's offensive output is limited, averaging only 2.8 shots on target in their last 4 games
All probabilities
Result
Czech Republic66%
Draw23%
Guatemala11%
Double chance
Czech Republic or draw89%
Guatemala or draw34%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
2:0
14%
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
3:0
9%
3:1
6%
Lineups
Czech Republic 5-4-1 · Guatemala 3-4-2-1
Czech Republic
- 1 M. Kovář
- 6 ?. Chaloupek
- 4 R. Hranáč
- 7 L. Krejčí
- 5 V. Coufal
- 22 T. Souček
- 18 M. Sadílek
- 14 D. Jurásek
- 17 L. Provod
- 15 P. Šulc
- 10 P. Schick
Guatemala
- 12 L. Morán
- 7 A. Herrera
- 23 M. Hernández De León
- 3 N. Samayoa Pacheco
- 4 J. Pinto Samayoa
- 16 J. Morales Concua
- 18 O. Santis Cayax
- 22 J. Franco
- 5 J. Rosales Marroquín
- 19 W. Fajardo Montenegro
- 9 D. Méndez Martínez
Substitutes
- 9 A. Hložek
- 21 D. Douděra
- 16 J. Staněk
- 19 T. Chorý
- 2 D. Zima
- 3 T. Holeš
- 13 M. Chytil
- 26 D. Višinský
- 12 L. Červ
- 23 L. Horníček
- 20 J. Zelený
- 11 J. Kuchta
- 24 A. Sojka
- 25 H. Sochůrek
- 8 V. Darida
- 2 J. Ardón Castellanos
- 6 K. Ramírez López
- 8 M. Evans Wolff
- 13 J. Bantes Rodríguez
- 14 D. Lom
- 17 O. Castellanos Santos
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 20 O. Escobar
- 10 A. Ordonez
- 15 J. Méndez
- 24 A. Recinos
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