Friendly International

Czech Republic - Guatemala

06/05/2026, 12:00 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Czech Republic
1.9
Total xG
2.5
Guatemala
0.6
Most Likely Scores

2:0

14%

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

3:0

9%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
CRGUA

Czech Republic

Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.79
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.60
Standings advantage (pos 39 vs 98, 59 places gap)
+0.13
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

Guatemala

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.69
Attack weakness (0.44x league average)
-0.50
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.19
Standings disadvantage (pos 98 vs 39, 59 places gap)
-0.11

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

23%

Away Win

11%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

89%

Away or Draw

34%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of a home win for the Czech Republic (66%)
  • Guatemala's defensive vulnerabilities are significant, with an average of 4.0 goals conceded per game this season
  • A critical impact on the Czech Republic's starting XI strength, with only 0% of the usual active goals share available
Risk Factors
  • Guatemala is in very poor form, with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 4 matches
  • The Czech Republic faces this match with several players sidelined due to injury (M. Vitík, D. Zima, V. Jaroš, J. Kliment, V. Jemelka)
  • Guatemala's offensive output is limited, averaging only 2.8 shots on target in their last 4 games
Overview

The Czech Republic will host Guatemala in a Friendly International match at Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores on June 5, 2026, 2:00 AM. Mathematical analysis shows the Czechs as clear favorites with a 66% win probability

Form

The Czech Republic won their only recent match, showing a W form

Guatemala, on the other hand, is in a difficult phase with a form of LDLL

This translates to 0 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 4 games

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

The Czech Republic scored an average of 2.0 goals per game this season and conceded 1.0 goal per game

Guatemala has scored an average of 0.0 goals and conceded 4.0 goals per game this season

The Czechs had both teams score in 1 of 1 match (100%) and finished 1 of 1 match (100%) with over 2.5 goals

Guatemala had both teams score in 0 of 2 matches (0%) and 1 of 2 matches (50%) with over 2.5 goals

In the Czech Republic's only home game, they scored 2 goals and conceded 1 goal

In Guatemala's away games, they conceded a total of 8 goals

Head-to-Head

No data on previous head-to-head encounters between these two teams is available in the provided dataset

Key Players

For the Czech Republic: Patrik Schick showed a strong performance with 6 goals in his last 5 games with an average rating of 7.48

Pavel Sulc contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Tomáš Souček scored 1 goal in his last 5 games

For Guatemala: Ó. Santis provided 1 assist in his last 3 games with an average rating of 6.51

Goalkeepers

Matej Kovar for the Czech Republic had 0 clean sheets this season

L. Morán for Guatemala had 0 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Czech Republic scored 2 goals and conceded 1 goal in their only home game

Guatemala conceded an average of 4 goals in away games

The surface at Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores is grass

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