Friendly International

Greece - Italy

06/07/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Greece
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Italy
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
GREITA

Greece

Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.30
Standings disadvantage (pos 40 vs 10, 30 places gap)
-0.24
Full strength squad available

Italy

Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 40, 30 places gap)
+0.09
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

30%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a very close outcome, with a 39% home win, 30% draw, and 32% away win
  • Italy showed a very strong defense in their single season game, with 0 goals conceded and 1 clean sheet
  • Greece averaged 4.5 shots on target in their last 4 games
Risk Factors
  • Greece had only 3 days since their last match
  • Italy averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last game
  • Greece failed to score in 2 out of 3 season games
Overview

Greece hosts Italy at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis for a Friendly International match on June 7, 2026, 9:00 PM

The mathematical analysis predicts a close outcome, with a 39% probability for a home win, a 30% draw, and a 32% away win

Form

Greece has a record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last four games (WLDD)

Most recently, Greece drew 2-2 away against Sweden

This was followed by a 0-0 draw away against Hungary

Italy has secured 1 win in their last game (W)

Italy recently won 1-0 away against Luxembourg

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Greece averages 0.67 goals scored per game and concedes 1.0 goal per game this season

Italy averages 1.0 goal scored per game and has conceded 0.0 goals in their single season game so far

Greece had both teams scoring in 1 of 3 season games and over 2.5 goals in 1 of 3 games

Italy had both teams scoring in 0 of 1 season game and over 2.5 goals in 0 of 1 game

The Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis venue has seen an average of 4.0 goals per game in one match

At this venue, both teams scored in 0 of 1 game and there were over 2.5 goals in 1 of 1 game

Head-to-Head

No data is available for previous head-to-head encounters between Greece and Italy

Key Players

For Greece, Georgios Masouras is in good form, with 1 season goal and 0 assists and a season average rating of 7.07

Christos Tzolis has provided 1 season assist and scored 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 4 games, showing a rising form trend

Anastasios Douvikas scored 2 goals in his last 5 games, indicating a rising form

For Italy, Pio Esposito is a key player with 1 season goal and a season average rating of 7.6

Niccolò Pisilli has 1 season assist and contributed 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 games, showing a rising form trend

Cher Ndour showed stable form with 1 goal in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Greece's goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos has achieved 1 clean sheet this season

Italy's goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma has achieved 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

The Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis venue has an average of 4.0 total goals per game

At this stadium, the Over 2.5 goals mark was exceeded in 1 of 1 game, and both teams scored in 0 of 1 game

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