Match report →
Greece – Italy0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Greece
1.37
Total xG
2.59
Italy
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Greece | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.30 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 40 vs 10, 30 places gap) | −0.24 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 40, 30 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very close outcome, with a 39% home win, 30% draw, and 32% away win
- Italy showed a very strong defense in their single season game, with 0 goals conceded and 1 clean sheet
- Greece averaged 4.5 shots on target in their last 4 games
Risks
- Greece had only 3 days since their last match
- Italy averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last game
- Greece failed to score in 2 out of 3 season games
All probabilities
Result
Greece39%
Draw30%
Italy32%
Double chance
Greece or draw68%
Italy or draw61%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
0:1
Final score
Lineups
Greece 3-4-2-1 · Italy 3-4-2-1
Greece
- 1 O. Vlachodimos
- 5 P. Retsos
- 17 P. Hatzidiakos
- 3 K. Koulierakis
- 2 G. Vagiannidis
- 23 N. Triantis
- 8 C. Mouzakitis
- 19 G. Kiriakopoulos
- 7 G. Masouras
- 10 C. Tzolis
- 9 A. Douvikas
Italy
- 1 G. Donnarumma
- 24 H. Ahanor
- 15 P. Comuzzo
- 4 F. Cristian Chiarodia
- 11 L. Koleosho
- 5 L. Lipani
- 10 C. Ndour
- 3 D. Bartesaghi
- 21 N. Pisilli
- 18 J. Ekhator
- 9 F. Esposito
Substitutes
- 11 C. Kostoulas
- 4 K. Mavropanos
- 14 V. Pavlidis
- 12 K. Tzolakis
- 16 A. Tetteh
- 18 S. Kontouris
- 20 C. Zafeiris
- 21 K. Tsimikas
- 15 L. Rota
- 13 C. Mandas
- 25 A. Ntoi
- 6 D. Kourmpelis
- 24 T. Androutsos
- 26 A. Kiziridis
- 6 F. Mane
- 2 N. Fortini
- 17 S. Fini
- 8 F. Camarda
- 22 C. Favasuli
- 14 T. Berti
- 20 M. Dagasso
- 23 L. Palmisani
- 12 G. Daffara
- 7 A. Cacciamani
- 19 S. Inacio
- 13 L. Reggiani
- 16 G. Faticanti
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