Match report →
Spain – Iraq1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Spain
1.83
Total xG
2.80
Iraq
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
Key factors
- Significant reduction in Spain's offensive strength, with only 40% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available
- Spain's tactical dominance in possession (66% possession) and with an average of 7.0 shots on target in the last 2 games
- The mathematical analysis shows a high probability of a home win at 56%
Risks
- Limited data availability for Iraq's form and season statistics
All probabilities
Result
Spain56%
Draw26%
Iraq19%
Double chance
Spain or draw82%
Iraq or draw44%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
Lineups
Spain 4-2-3-1 · Iraq 4-4-2
Spain
- 13 J. Pons
- 12 P. Porro Sauceda
- 16 J. Martín Vicente
- 14 A. Laporte
- 3 A. Grimaldo García
- 9 Pablo Gaviria
- 18 M. Bernal Casas
- 7 F. Torres García
- 10 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 15 A. Rodríguez
- 26 B. Iglesias Quintas
Iraq
- 22 A. Fadhil
- 3 H. Ali
- 4 Z. Tahseen
- 5 A. Rahman
- 23 M. Doski
- 8 I. Bayesh
- 24 Z. Al Dulaimi
- 16 A. Al-Ammari
- 21 M. Farji
- 9 A. Al-Hamadi
- 17 A. Al Tameemi
Substitutes
- 1 L. Román Riquelme
- 21 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 17 S. Gómez
- 19 J. Guerra Moreno
- 8 G. García Torres
- 22 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 4 E. García
- 5 M. Llorente Moreno
- 2 M. Pubill Pagès
- 23 U. Simón Mendibil
- 20 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 11 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 6 M. Merino Zazón
- 25 J. Rodríguez Caraballo
- 7 Y. Amyn
- 14 Z. Iqbal
- 19 K. Yakob
- 11 A. Qasem
- 1 F. Raheem
- 13 A. Hashim
- 10 M. Ali
- 25 M. Saadoun Al Korji
- 15 A. Mhmood Al-Hajjaj
- 20 A. Sher
- 18 A. Hussein
- 2 R. Sulaka Adhamat
- 6 M. Younnes
- 12 J. Hachim
- 26 F. Putros
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