Match report →
Panama – Bosnia and Herzegovina1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Panama
1.84
Total xG
2.83
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Panama | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.93 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.53 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 73 vs 29, 44 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 29 vs 73, 44 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Panama with a 56% probability and 1.84 expected goals.
- Panama shows improved offensive form, averaging 1.8 goals recently compared to 1.67 in their season average.
- Energizer Park, the venue, favors high-scoring games with an average of 3.2 goals per match and 4 out of 5 over 2.5 results.
Risks
- Panama has only 2 days of rest since their last match, which could affect recovery.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina registered only 3.0 shots on target in their last game, despite 69% possession.
- Panama concedes an average of 2 goals per season game.
All probabilities
Result
Panama56%
Draw25%
Bosnia and Herzegovina19%
Double chance
Panama or draw81%
Bosnia and Herzegovina or draw44%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Panama: 5 of 7 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Panama: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- Panama: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)
Lineups
Panama 4-4-2 · Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-4-2
Panama
- 22 O. Mosquera
- 2 C. Blackman
- 13 J. Ramos Díaz
- 5 E. Fariña
- 16 A. Andrade Cedeño
- 23 M. Murillo Bermudez
- 14 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 6 C. Martinez
- 7 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 11 E. Bárcenas Herrera
- 18 C. Waterman Ruiz
Bosnia and Herzegovina
- 1 N. Vasilj
- 7 A. Dedić
- 18 N. Katić
- 4 T. Muharemovic
- 5 S. Kolašinac
- 19 K. Alajbegović
- 6 B. Tahirovic
- 13 I. Bašić
- 20 E. Bajraktarevic
- 25 J. Lukić
- 10 E. Demirović
Substitutes
- 3 J. Cordoba Chambers
- 1 J. Gunn
- 26 J. Gutiérrez Cornejo
- 27 K. Barria
- 28 V. Griffith Mullins
- 24 A. Londoño
- 15 E. Davis Grajales
- 21 C. Yanis Velasco
- 19 A. Quintero Medina
- 17 J. Fajardo Nelson
- 9 T. Rodríguez Mena
- 10 I. Díaz De León
- 12 C. Samudio Murillo
- 4 F. Escobar Mendieta
- 25 R. Miller Molina
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 24 N. Čelik
- 9 S. Baždar
- 16 A. Hadžiahmetović
- 14 I. Šunjić
- 15 A. Memić
- 23 A. Malic
- 21 S. Radeljić
- 22 M. Zlomislić
- 12 M. Jurkas
- 11 E. Džeko
- 3 D. Hadzikadunic
- 2 N. Mujakić
- 17 D. Burnic
- 26 E. Mahmić
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