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Morocco – Burundi5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Morocco
1.68
Total xG
2.94
Burundi
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
Key factors
- Morocco's strong form: The team is unbeaten in their last five matches (4 wins, 1 draw)
- Morocco's tactical dominance: The team was possession-dominant (64% possession) and averaged 6.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Prediction model: Mathematical analysis favors Morocco with a 46% home win probability and predicted goals of 1.68 compared to 1.26 for Burundi
Risks
- Limited data available for Burundi, as away team season statistics are missing
- No historical head-to-head encounters available between the teams
- Incomplete xG data for Morocco's last 5 games (3 out of 5 are missing)
All probabilities
Result
Morocco46%
Draw27%
Burundi27%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
Morocco or draw73%
Burundi or draw54%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Morocco: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- Morocco: scored only after the break in 4 of 6 games
- Morocco: 60% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 10)
- Morocco: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 6 games. Against Tunisia: 2 goals (80', 90+4')
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